EAST - SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

A very quick wrap on the severe weather unfolding over the east from today and where things will evolve over the coming days.


Things will continue to chop and change and so keep up to date. While I want to be more specific on rainfall totals, the mesoscale (small scale) which involves thunderstorms means predicting rainfall with any great confidence is low and frustrating. But inland areas should be weather aware with some areas picking up 60mm overnight.


OBSERVATIONS

Moisture is being drawn into the system this morning and the storms are increasing this afternoon.

The cloudy skies look disorganised but the weather will erupt over western NSW through northern NSW, into southern QLD and eastern SA then northwest VIC behind all this junk and moderate rainfall this morning. The one saving grace of this event is the cloud keeping the weather relatively cool. If it was hotter, this would be a high end severe weather event involving hail and damaging winds as well.

FORECAST

Where does the low go?

The models are fairly well aligned in terms of forming the low pressure and passing it through during the remainder of this week to be over NSW by Saturday but the location will drastically determine rainfall output which you can see below.

The patchy rain and storms about the east will increase today, the moisture is still yet to peak today and tomorrow and the low has not quite formed. You will note an increase in the thunderstorms as the low deepens and moves into the saturated atmosphere.

DATA

This is the run from last night at 9pm EDT - Rainfall Next 7 Days

This is the run from this morning at 3am EDT - Rainfall Next 7 Days

This is the latest run at 9am EDT - Rainfall Next 7 Days

Future Radar - Next 4 Days

Now the radar would not look like this but it is a measurement of reflectivity over the course of the next 4 days

The evolution of the rainfall throughout the southeast and east during the coming 4 days

Each frame moves along by 3hrs so rainfall will be widespread for a number of days with heavy falls about. The rainfall for Central VIC is very hard to call with no clear idea on how far south the rainfall comes. Thunderstorms amongst the forecast rain shield will lead to heavier falls (60mm in southern NSW overnight is proof of that). Note there is more rain next week as the tussle in the modelling as to whether the east dries out with a westerly or the easterly dominates with higher humidity and rainfall continues from run to run.

The other models for the coming 4-5 Days - Refer to video for more

ICON - Rainfall Next 5 Days

ACCESS - Rainfall Next 5 Days

UKMET - Rainfall Next 5 Days

I will have more this afternoon - but keep in touch with the warnings and updates from the BoM and my analysis. I will take a look at next week in greater detail as what happens next week could be quite dramatic for the east.