EARLY EDITION - TUESDAY MORNING - SHOWERS FLOAT THROUGH THE EAST MOSTLY QUIET ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.

The weather is very benign today, with showers drifting around the southeast inland of the nation and a colder surge of air pushing through eastern SA and VIC today with a few sharp showers. But otherwise, the rest of the nation is quiet under high pressure and drier air which is fairly typical of July.


As we move through the outlook period however, there is some interesting weather to look out for. A fast flow pattern is expected to emerge over Southern Australia which may lead to more active weather developing for WA, SA, VIC and southern NSW/ACT.


This will be welcome and hopefully brings that better rainfall prospects for these areas. It may be a longer duration weather event for the south of the country with multiple fronts on the board.


Key Elements to Watch


Upper Air Pattern

The upper air pattern is becoming way more mobile, despite the GFS suggesting another upper low develops over the Bight through the weekend and next week. The frontal assault that looks to line up the SWLD of WA could support the development of a more vigorous westerly wind belt and this lifting cold fronts further north. A more zonal flow is what you expect to see this time of year and if we can introduce moisture into the flow pattern, we may see cloudy skies and more widespread rainfall along and to the north of the westerly wind belt as well with cold fronts. More on that later this morning.

Simulated Cloud Coverage

There is a lot of cloud developing through the jet stream, but can that result in more widespread rainfall developing along cold fronts? That will be the question that remains to be seen over the coming days.

Moisture Watch Next Week - July 18-25th 2022

We will see a decent slab of moisture come out of the Indian Ocean this week, via the westerly wind belt and a modest low-pressure system, that will weaken as it moves through the SWLD, but its main objective is to pull moisture south and east towards Australia and then drag it through the westerly wind regime and that should take place from the start of next week. In addition to that, another large-scale surge of moisture looks to move south out of the Indonesian Archipelago and this dive into the jet stream too, increasing the chance of inland rainfall on the northern flank of the westerly wind belt. So the moisture increasing will be denoted by large cloud bands and this will be something to watch in real time from next week.

Moisture Watch Following Week - July 25th-August 2nd, 2022

The moisture plume that surges out of Indonesia and on the northern flank of a long wave trough will start to move eastwards. Now that does not mean the whole area that is shaded in, will see rainfall, but the likely impacts will be associated with low pressure and where that forms within the yellow zone, rainfall will be more efficient and likely to be above average. At this time, that looks to be over southern and southeast Australia, but the tropics will also see cloud cover and increased humidity and the chance of some light rainfall.

Rainfall Anomalies - July 18-25th 2022

Not much change in the next week with the wettest weather likely out west where frontal weather starts to stand up and then traverse east. But with a larger high building over NSW and QLD in the wintertime position, this may support the frontal weather weakening as they head east. So seasonal rainfall expectations for now most elsewhere is fair under that arrangement but is subject to change if the high in the east is weaker or moves further to the east.

Rainfall Anomalies - July 26th -August 2nd, 2022

The moisture running through the jet stream may combine with frontal weather to lift rainfall chances over inland WA, through SA and into northern VIC and inland NSW. The rest of the nation looking seasonal for now, but watching that moisture content over the tropics where cloud and light rain could form.

More coming up from 8am EST with the weather video and then a more detailed look at the rainfall and temperature spread for the longer range later this morning.