EARLY EDITION - TUESDAY MORNING - CLOUD CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH - WET SIGNAL FOR THE EAST.
The cloud continues to build over northern parts of the nation as we track an upper trough and deep moisture profile into the nation’s north leading to anomalous weather conditions.
The weather over the remainder of the country is rather quiet today with high pressure taking over. But it is all about the rain event in the east and northeast and the drier bias over the west and south.
Do we see the rainfall spread to further areas of southeast and eastern Australia or does it contain itself over the northeast of the country and does that open the door for rainfall to increase over parts of the southwest and west of the country, with the pattern shifting more freely?
Cloud is expected to grow in coverage today, mainly high and thin but it will be a signal of what is laying ahead as we move into late Winter and early Spring as we see moisture being drawn in via the upper northwest winds into low pressure. Dry for most areas but rain will break out over the interior of the NT and try and move into western QLD but not much is expected to hit any gauges being that the rain falls in the observation hole in remote areas.
The cloud that comes from the northwest starts to clear the southeast with brighter weather ahead over NSW and eastern VIC. A small upper low is forecast to approach the southeast with showers developing along the south coast of SA. Rain moves over interior and remote NT into QLD but the coverage not widespread or heavy yet with the upper feature weak and lacking support for widespread rainfall at this time. Below average temperatures for the interior but warmer weather is expected over in the west.
Rain starts to increase in coverage over QLD in response to the developing low-pressure system over NSW, with rainfall also developing along the QLD coast and possibly northeast NSW. At this stage rainfall not heavy but that comes during Friday. The rest of the nation looking quiet, colder in the southeast with showers decreasing as the flow stablises and mild and sunny in the west with high pressure controlling.
Rain and thunderstorms over interior QLD beginning to become heavy along a trough that snakes back over the NT interior, with many areas under the band to record well above average rainfall at a 1/25 year level. Decile 8-10 rainfall is likely under this band. The rain increases over NSW during the afternoon and evening and mainly for northern and central areas with the upper low overhead. Heavy showers may also develop along the coast from Sydney northwards with some chance of flash flooding with these as convergence develops near the Hunter Coast. Dry weather back west and running along the southeast coast as well with high pressure nearby.
Rain and thunderstorms will locally heavy falls starting to contract out of western QLD and into southern and central QLD with a trough there. A trough along the coast driving periods of rain and thunderstorms from Mackay to about Batemans Bay with locally heavy falls. Showers with isolated thunderstorms for inland NSW with small hail and below average temperatures. Dry weather for most elsewhere with high pressure in full control.
Rain and thunderstorms continue for the east of QLD and into NSW with heavy falls possible with the trough along the coast and near a developing low off the coast of NSW where strong to gale force winds may also form. Showers may increase over the southeast inland of NSW into ACT and possibly into eastern VIC. The weather back further west through the southeast inland should clear and fine weather with seasonal weather over the southern, central and northern areas and warmer than normal weather in the west.
Widespread rain and strong winds continue for southern NSW with a deep low floating about and that may extend into eastern VIC with also moderate falls possible here. Rain and storms clear the QLD and NSW coast with a trough lifting offshore. Fine weather for much of the rest of the inland of the nation. High pressure should begin to move eastwards bringing the settled conditions. But out west, the first of a series of cold fronts should be on the approach with widespread showers later in the day into Tuesday.
Lots on the video coming up from 8am EST. Talk then. Time to get coffee!