The negative SAM phase is starting to take shape on the forecast charts with frequent frontal weather, the westerly wind belt is moving northwards and the overall trend for rainfall to focus mainly over southern areas of the nation shows us that we are well and truly into a mobile Winter Weather Pattern.

That is comforting to many, as we have seen in the past years, that Winter patterns have failed to deliver rainfall to many areas needing the cool season rainfall, but this year, so far, many areas have at least seen decent reprieve which is welcome.

The weather is expected to remain largely unchanged for the nation, drier the further north and northwest you go. There may be a couple of rogue showers over the east coast this weekend but primarily drier weather for much of the east through the next 7 days (will watch the system next week over VIC to see if that can bring some welcome rainfall back to SE NSW east of the divide).

A lot of attention will be posted by the rainfall potential over the north, do not get sucked into that just yet, we will break down that together over the coming days, it is possible it could disappear altogether and peak offshore in the Coral Sea or run through WA. We just don't know what is happening with that system yet.

Let's focus on the short term to begin with.

Today looks showery through the southeast and far southwest with frontal weather in the regions and you can make out the jet stream, although fair weather, you can see it still drifting through the nation. So, it is alive with moisture, just no trigger to produce rainfall. Strongest signal for rainfall will be over the SWLD tomorrow night with dry weather most elsewhere away from the SE and SW.

Friday 17th June 2022

Inland rain over WA with some moderate falls. Showers and storms over the SWLD with the chance of damaging winds as the system moves through with some heavier falls. The models are struggling with this feature so if you get time, check the video later this morning. Over the east, there may be a few showers about in onshore winds late in the day but most elsewhere will be dry.

Saturday 18th June 2022

Significant cloud band on some of the models, not all, bringing widespread rainfall through the nation's interior and coming into SA. Showers hail and thunder for the SWLD with gusty winds over the region. Note the east is dry and the northeast, but the moisture offshore the NT is of interest and if the trough over the interior can tap into that, we could see a cloud band the size of you see north of NZ over the eastern and northern parts of our nation.

Sunday 19th of June 2022

The rain band swiftly moves into the east with a weakening cloud band, cold front coming through SA with moderate showers and a thunderstorm. Rain and cloud thickening offshore the NT and then over the NT and spreading southwards potentially if the upper trough can capture it. Showers easing over the SWLD.

Monday 20th of June 2022

Thickening cloud and patchy rainfall over the NT moving into QLD with an upper trough but confidence is not high with this feature. Deep low southwest of SA bringing showers and storms into VIC and further showery periods into SA. Fine weather developing over in WA with a ridge and fine along the east coast in mild westerly winds.

We will take a look at the medium term in greater details later this morning but check out the video from 8am EST if you can for more information. Have a great morning.