EARLY EDITION - THURSDAY MORNING - RAIN INCREASING OUT WEST TODAY AND THE SHOWERS IN THE EAST CLEAR.

The pattern is starting to shift this morning as we see a fast flow pattern trying to establish over in WA with low pressure systems rolling through over the course of the coming days, one today, could bring widespread moderate rainfall.


In the east we have a decent slab of showery southerly winds bringing moderate falls to the extreme coastal fringe, but the falls are barely getting inland away from the Hunter.


Elsewhere it is a cold start, and we have a nasty period of frost coming up tomorrow that many should be aware of in the east and southeast.


Lots of weather trying to move eastwards this weekend as well. So, what is the latest features to watch.


Upper Air Pattern

The fast flow pattern looks to get going next week, but the pattern in the short term between now and next Monday, looks complex, with multiple areas of low pressure above the surface leading to a low confidence forecast. Once the flow pattern becomes more zonal and fast flowing, we should see significant frontal weather moving over WA and then this spreading into SA and VIC with windy and showery weather. Dry weather for now over the northern parts of the nation but the eastern inland of the country is in a state of flux where moisture is present, but can low pressure collect it next week or does the low pressure pass south?

Simulated Satellite Picture

A complex pattern above results in a lot of cloud moving throughout the nation with the potential for rainfall moderate to high over southern and western Australia, but the intensity of that rainfall will be dictated by whether we see low pressure form over the Tasman Sea which could briefly block the westerly wind regime from having full impact on the southeast of the nation, leaving the west of the nation fairly wet and windy. Also watching the potential moisture building over QLD and NSW next week too as per the charts below.

MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES

Frost Risk Forecast Friday

Frosts developing in a widespread manner on Friday morning with the chance of freeze conditions developing over the southeast of NSW and the ACT where temperatures could get down as low as -9C during the morning. This will do damage to crops, cause issues for exposed stock and burst pipes. Ensure you are prepared.

Freeze Risk Forecast Friday

Significant risk of freeze conditions where pipes will likely burst under these conditions, significant damage to crops and vulnerable plants and stress to livestock.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 20th-August 4th, 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture is forecast to stream through the jet stream via the Indian Ocean in advance of a long wave trough which will likely see the frontal weather associated with this wave of low pressure producing more widespread rainfall thanks to the injection of moisture. This will waft across to SA, VIC and NSW with high cloud and patchier rainfall. The east could see increasing moisture in onshore winds which may produce a few showers.

Moisture Watch Following Week

Moisture running through a lower latitude easterly wave could be drawn through the north of the nation into QLD in advance of the long wave trough exiting eastern Australia. Some cloud and rain are possible. Another set of cold fronts will drag in moisture from the Central Indian Ocean and lead to further seasonal rainfall expectations for the west and south of the country.

Rainfall Anomalies Next Week

The rainfall is now moving into the short-term forecasts with a lot of rainfall now likely in the coming 10 days. There will be frontal weather moving through SA and VIC through this time, but it is likely that the rainfall will meet seasonal expectations at best and nothing more. Further frontal weather passing through the SWLD may produce further widespread showers and a leaning above average signal of rainfall.

Rainfall Anomalies Following Week

Likely to see a tighter thermal gradient develop and this could lead to more unstable weather, with moisture running through the jet stream, I do suspect we will see more rainfall developing across the nation, especially as the wave passes through from west to east. A low chance of rainfall lingering over the eastern coast of NSW as well.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

A warmup is expected from the weekend and increasing next week as a result of the elevated SSTs offshore NW Australia is filtering through ahead of cold fronts slipping to the southeast. A warm northwesterly flow will start to distribute this warmer signal into the eastern inland later next week, but it is hard to determine how warm it will get, as moisture looks to be sufficient for large scale cloud bands to form on the northern flank of the fronts as they pass southeast of SA and VIC. This may suppress temperatures.

Temperature Anomalies Following Week

The warmer bias is still expected to graduate northwards as a long wave trough starts to move through southern and western parts of the country. The clash zone between the colder air surging north and the warmer air increasing over interior regions will be an area to watch as the jet stream is likely to intersect this zone and with moisture increasing over the Indian Ocean, there will be a higher chance of rainfall building through the forecast period.

More coming up in the video from 8am EST.