The weather pattern is still very much of low confidence this Thursday morning from the weekend into early next week with the widespread rainfall potential still likely to unfold over QLD and the NT, but who actually gets what remains of interest, with the deeper moisture, anomalous upper-level troughs in the region, leading to models scratching their heads, struggling to pin down the evolution of the events starting from early next week.

Frontal weather in the short term offers more consistent guide of light rainfall through southern areas of the country with the southeast copping the best of it for now while the west dries out under the upper high.

Overall, the main event, northern and eastern Australia being caked in higher moisture levels and upper-level troughs! It is of great interest, so let's take a look.


There is a modest cold front snaking through the southern parts of the nation today and we can already see showers increasing over SWLD of WA and that rain is also increasing over western TAS where there has been some moderate to heavy falls on the west coast. Cloud band clearing the east coast and fine weather most inland with a warm day on the way for many areas.


Showers increasing through VIC during Friday morning with lighter falls back towards southern SA with most of the rainfall clearing east through the day and fine by night. The weather elsewhere across the nation will be dry under a strong upper ridge.


Showery weather in the southeast easing as winds ease but cold with the upper heights below average. Fine weather most elsewhere with some jet stream cloud over the interior and moisture increasing over parts of the NT may lead to a few isolated showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon but fine elsewhere.


Rain and thunderstorms developing over the northern parts of the nation with moderate to heavy falls possible with thunderstorms later in the day or at night. Cloud increases further through central Australia and into western QLD with below average temperatures. Fine in the southeast after a morning shower and a shower possible in the far southwest of WA later in the day but dry inland.


Rain and thunderstorms over the northern and central interior spreading south and east through the day with moderate to heavy falls. Fine over the west and southeast with colder weather over the southeast in low cloud and dry and mild weather over in the west.


A broad band of rain and thunderstorms from the tropics through the central and eastern parts of the nation will still carry a low confidence, but if this was to verify, heavy falls and flash flooding could become an issue on the leading edge of the rain band as it moves east and moderate widespread falls extend back into Ag SA but there is a high chance that this will change by the time you see the weather video later this morning.

More coming up on the events starting next week in the latest weather video at 8am EST and then we will look at the ENSO region to see if we are heading back into La Nina or not. Plus, do we see the Indian Ocean playing games with us or is it on track, nervous farmers out there. My take later today.