EARLY EDITION - THE WEATHER STILL VERY ACTIVE EAST BUT IT WILL SETTLE THIS WEEK. FRONTS TO RETURN?

Well, that is the million-dollar question for many who are in the throes of crop management at the moment through WA, SA and VIC. Plenty wanting to know when we can see a few mm of the rainfall returns to the region after watching the east for the 4th time this year, cop a smashing of rainfall they do not need!


That system is on the way out and we will likely see a gradual easing of the rain along the NSW and QLD coasts, but the flooding will linger for days to come and likely for weeks, once again a long road to recovery for these catchments. Also, over inland NSW and QLD, catchments very wet in areas where the bands of rainfall have been persistent, setting up the flood risks for Spring quite nicely.


And do not think it had to rain overhead this weekend to not increase your risk of widespread flooding this Spring, the bulk of the catchments over inland Australia are sitting ducks for flooding this year.


Let's see what is happening back in the short term, beyond the pattern flip. Do we see some frontal weather return to bring the rainfall over Southern Australia once again or does the easterly flow win out!?


Simulated Satellite Imagery

The satellite imagery for the week shows the pattern takes 5 days to resolve on the east coast as the deep moisture and low pressure keeps the rain going in the east. Finally, a front will come to the southwest of the nation with a much stronger system this weekend over in the SWLD with that expected to spread east and end up in the Bight this weekend into early next week. Dry weather most elsewhere.

Upper Air Pattern

The upper air pattern shows the stubborn easterly dominance over the nation and that is what is keeping high pressure further south and leading to the westerly wind belt barely on the screen this week, but it does return. As the upper ridge moves northwards, the frontal weather then creeps back within striking distance of the coastal areas of the nation's southwest and southeast. Overall, the pattern is anomalous for this time of year and will resolve in the coming 7 days to something somewhat seasonal.

Surface Pressure Pattern

Noting that the GFS overnight is playing with the idea of copycat upper-level low pressure over the nation and then bombing them offshore the eastern seaboard keeping the south unusually dry and flying in the face of the climate guidance, that has been present all year so with that said, still low confidence forecasting but will have more soon.

More coming up from 8am EST. Check out the video then.