EARLY EDITION - THE WEATHER IS ACTIVE THIS WEEK - GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO LOOK AT THE INGREDIENTS.

Why is the weather all of a sudden so vicious and productive with widespread rainfall moving through areas that have been screaming for rainfall for weeks, to now be faced with days of rainfall potential? Why is the rainfall well above normal in areas that should be seeing snowfalls rather than torrential rainfall? Temperatures above average as well through many areas ahead of the front and while it is raining! The spread of severe gales across the country is not uncommon in Spring, but have they come early indicating what lay ahead into the Spring?


Lots of questions that will need to be answered in the days ahead but the ingredients in play support my forecasts from months ago and we are on track for an active spell of weather nationally, away from the tropics.


Upper Air Pattern - Next 2 Weeks

A robust and energetic weather pattern is forecast to continue across the nation this week and there are signals that further large scale and productive rainfall events are into the medium term with the higher chances for follow up rainfall for Southern Australia at this time.

Simulated Satellite Imagery - Next 2 Weeks

You can see the significant cloud band activity spreading throughout the continent this week with a major long wave passing through and all the ingredients are there for widespread rainfall moving throughout the nation. Deep moisture may linger into the medium term and from as early as next week, widespread rainfall developing over the interior of the nation and this spreading south and southeast/east at regular intervals, all wanting to drop a lot of rainfall. Frontal weather continues out west with cloud bands coming in from the Indian Ocean.

Moisture Spread - Next 2 Weeks

Exceptional moisture supply right throughout the nation with 3-4 weather events to tap into that moisture. That will lead to excessive rainfall, this first set of systems setting the tone of what is to come for the remainder of Winter and what I fear is going to be a very ugly Spring. But I have said enough...it is about people absorbing that and watching closely.

Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The GFS tending warmer where the Euro is trending cooler in the medium, the forecasting divergence indicates that models are entering the low confidence Spring forecast period earlier this year. But the warmer spell, the heat engine waking up early plays havoc with the weather pattern, as the landmass to the south is cold and that creates very tight thermal gradients that when we have moisture running through the jet stream, can see significant weather events unfold.

Rainfall Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The rainfall anomalies are certainly very elevated in response to the very high levels of moisture that is present on current modelling and this indicates that the coming set of systems are not a one-off for the coming 3-4 months. So certainly something to watch into the medium term.

More coming up from 8am EST with the weather video and analysis for the short term.