EARLY EDITION - THE SEVERE WEATHER EASES IN THE EAST BUT WILL IT RETURN? SHOWERS INCREASING WEST.

The weeklong rain event that has deluged the east is starting to work out to sea today leading to showers becoming less frequent and the gale force winds easing over NSW. The rain has now ended over central NSW but may creep into northern NSW and far southern QLD over the next day or so as a trough works north along the NSW coast and upper low heads into QLD.


The pattern very complex and dynamic for this time of year.


The weather over the south remains settled and boring with high pressure in place. A cold front that is bringing showers to the southwest of the nation this morning is expected to move into the Bight and weaken before collapsing over the southeast later this week.


But it is that system that could spark the next robust area of rain for NSW this weekend. At the same time, a stronger cold front will be moving through SWLD of WA with a better chance of rainfall.


Simulated Satellite Imagery

Significant cloud and rain over the east and southeast of the nation continues to drive the flood risks but it will be leaving the region later today. Showers are forecast to move rapidly east over the nation's southwest and then die in the Bight. Then we see another upper trough coming through the southeast and this will meet the moisture and the unstable weather in the east providing another chance of significant rain to develop with a deepening east coast trough/low this weekend anywhere between Brisbane and Batemans Bay it appears. So, keep watch. Otherwise, another strong front over the southwest of the nation during Saturday will weaken as it moves east to reach SA by early next week and the southeast by this time next week with patchy falls.

Upper Air Pattern

A highly anomalous upper level low over the north will continue to move to the east over the coming days and clearing conditions will evolve over northeastern Australia while the onshore flow near a blocking pattern offshore NSW will keep the showery weather on the go with further moderate falls. A wave passing through the SWLD overnight and into this morning will provide the next upper low over the southeast and this could help spawn another east coast low with further heavy rainfall potential. That system is subject to major changes moving forward. Otherwise over the weekend, there will be another major wave over in the west, that brings the best rainfall to the SWLD in about 4 weeks. Then this system may be strong enough to knock the block out to NZ, but it will be weakened in the process over SA and VIC. In the medium term, you can see the pattern is more mobile.

Surface Pressure Pattern

The pressure pattern for the coming 2 weeks shows about 3 further low pressure systems sweeping through the nation but having a larger impact over the east coast where the model is suggesting further above average rainfall. But the pattern is more mobile than where it has been of recent times so that is one positive for southern Australia. For the west and southwest, there does appear to be more impacts from frontal weather this week which will hopefully knock the block out of the east and spread rainfall further east over Southern Australia. Below average temperatures continue for the east and north.

More coming up in the video after 8am EST this morning.