EARLY EDITION - THE RAINFALL IN THE EAST TO COMMENCE TOMORROW AND INCREASE OUT WEST MID WEEK.

That means the weather is dry elsewhere as the blocking pattern resumes over eastern Australia, which will help prop up that above average rainfall signal over the east but also bring up the chance of rainfall developing out west with frontal weather moving through. However, the bulk of the nation under this stubborn ridge, remaining dry for a while this week.


The weather will become much wetter throughout remainder of the week over QLD and NSW with the onshore winds so the further east you are the wetter you will be in both states and by the time we get to the end of the week, much of inland Australia will be dry.


Can the block move away through the weekend to open the door to at least weak fronts bringing light falls back into SA and VIC? That remains to be seen as we track through the coming days, so careful consideration of the modelling is needed to understand the spread of rainfall across the southern parts of the nation in relation to this element. Rainfall and temperature forecasts are of low confidence.


More regular weather is likely to unfold out west with the continuation of the frontal weather passing through from west to east as the long wave sits offshore, held up, you guessed it, by the blocking pattern.


Let's have a look at the elements to watch this week ahead of the weather video later this morning.


Upper Air Pattern

The wavy flow is set to flatten out and be beat down by ridging in the coming days and this will lead to drier and settled weather for southern Australia as a block develops over the Tasman Sea. There is some evidence that the block lasts about 5-7 days before the wavy flow starts to move northwards. The flow wavy, and there are a few more attempts for low pressure to form on the northern flank of the westerly wind belt which is not just an issue here in Australia but seems to be along the length of the westerly wind belt that is circumnavigating the globe.

Simulated Cloud Coverage

There is a lot of moisture running through the nation despite the presence of high pressure over southern and southeast areas, and this will result in lots of cloud cover spreading throughout the nation from northwest to southeast. The east will see a lot of cloud developing as we have an upper trough running into the moisture building offshore the east coast leading to widespread unusual rainfall. But you can clearly see the cold fronts passing through from the west with the significant impacts likely to be over the SWLD of WA for now. Dry weather and dry season weather continues over the northern tropics.

Moisture Spread

The moisture profile over the northeast of the nation remains excessive this week and that is leading to widespread rain and cloud cover with above average rainfall. The moisture profile in the west and that is of above seasonal values but not uncommon under these climate condition where the above average SSTs are in place. That moisture will drift eastwards with a lot of cloud this week into SA and VIC but the high pressure ridging through will stifle rainfall potential. Moisture with more intention of producing rainfall could impact the southern and southeastern coastal areas by the time we get to early next week and there are those usual signs of further large-scale moisture feeds coming through the jet stream as we move through the medium term towards the end of the month and into August

Temperature Spread - Next 2 Weeks

The temperatures are set to increase over the southern and southeast of the nation as we roll through the week and that will spread through to the eastern inland as we remove the rainfall event off the east coast. A stronger set of cold fronts will bring cloud and cooler air back to the southeast and southwest of the nation while the warm air continues to hang over large chunks of the inland for the remainder of the month. The below average run of temperatures over the northern tropics will slowly ease through this period.

MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

July 25th-August 2nd, 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture spreading through the jet stream over the west of the nation will continue to be shunted south and southeast where the rainfall bearing systems linking into the moisture will be found. Onshore winds on the east coast and moisture offshore QLD could lead to some showers and cloudy weather. Severe weather low at this time. The rest of the nation in relatively seasonal airmass with high pressure keeping things dry and deflecting the rainfall bearing systems away for now.

Rainfall Anomalies

A drier bias continues for the southern parts of the nation for now with the current guidance supporting the westerly wind belt being placed further south leading to less rainfall spreading these areas. The east coast may be dealing with further onshore winds and showers with Tasman Low pressure possible. The SWLD of the nation will see stronger cold fronts approaching. Showers and humid air over Cape York and PNG will keep the rainfall totals above normal thanks to warmer than normal SSTs.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

The cooler southwesterly flow will bring the temperatures back down after a nice warm up over the southeast and eastern inland as we track through this week. The heat engine is looking like it is starting to warm up though through the coming 2 weeks and beyond. If that continues, then the rainfall over northern and central inland parts of the nation may start to pick up in the period into August.

More coming up from 8am EST with the next video and check out the Climate Outlook too - once again reviewing the run into August and August 2022 as well.