EARLY EDITION - THE DECAYING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS HELPING TO SHIFT THE PATTERN NATIONALLY.

That is starting to take shape now, with rainfall light and patchy for the most part of the southeast and south with a lot of cloud cover, but the main impact of this system is the assistance in shoving out the large blocking high over Tasmania that has been with us since Saturday.


Frontal weather is forecast to move into the Bight this weekend with a cold surge moving northeast to reach SA by late afternoon on Sunday. Over the interior, we will be dealing with a large cloud band developing, which makes it very challenging to forecast how much of an influence the rainfall moves across the country from west to east. So that will be a feature to watch through the coming days.


The wettest weather next week may be over the southeast for a number of days with a severe weather risk and a very cold airmass. The main weather issues remain with damaging winds over the southeast at this time.


WA looks to be drier and more settled for the period with the fine conditions thanks to a high but that may come to an end next week with a front moving onshore with another band of rain.


The east coast certainly looking drier for now with westerly winds and ridging in place, much more traditional for this time of year for the region, starting to see the cracks appear in the easterly wind dominance as we transition out of the wet season.


Let’s take a look


Broken band of rain moving through the southeast today, with maybe a rumble of thunder, through inland parts of the east, but nothing too widespread nor heavy. Fine almost everywhere else with ridging in place and drier air back in WA. The north, dry and sunny under a ridge.

Strong cold front forms in the Bight on Saturday bringing a windy and colder shift to southern WA through the day before heading to SA on Sunday with widespread rainfall and gales. Cloud thickening over the interior from yet another northwest cloud band leading to widespread rainfall developing from this event. The east clears finally and warmer weather with plenty of sunshine at this time.

Deep low forms on Monday in the east of Bass Strait which would send up widespread showers and storms for the southeast with moderate falls from SA, through VIC and into southern NSW. Snowfalls heavy at times as well and we may see flurries further away from the Alpine areas down to 600m in VIC and 700m in NSW and the ACT. Widespread rainfall under a broad cloud band, heavy at times along the coast once again.

Cold outbreak clears the east by mid next week with frosty few days forecast for the southeast inland, that could be the first severe frosts of the season. Looking out west, we have another band of rain pushing into SA from WA, maybe some storms in that. Deep moisture moving closer to the NE of QLD with a fairly active area of convective weather being drawn southeast into the Tasman Sea low. Fine weather most elsewhere, but further showers may develop for the SWLD later in the day on Wednesday next week.

Unsettled in the east with patchy rain and some thunder moving through with another change. Colder in the southwest with another front and showery weather. Dry for much of the central and northern parts with below average temperatures expected away from the northern tropics.

SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

This forecast will continue to evolve but seems to be the main concern for the event.

Farmers and Graziers - Heads Up.

If you are Grazier dealing with large amounts of stock, this weather is the transition system where moving vulnerable stock to protected locations may be advisable, with the sharp drop in temperatures and very high wind chill coupled with widespread showers.

MEDIUM TERM

May 31st-June 7th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall signals becoming quite cloudy at the moment, with not great guidance. But for now, expecting the bulk of the rainfall coming through with the system over the southeast keeping the totals at seasonal values for now, may be a little above normal in pockets. Over the northwest and west, a decaying rain band should fizzle out over Central Australia. A weak signal for follow up heavy rainfall developing through southwest WA during the end of this period. Drier bias continues along the coast for now with westerly winds.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to moderate over in the southeast after the cold outbreak to kick off Winter so the end of this period, temperatures should warm up a bit. In the west, persistent cloud cover will lead to below average temperatures. The northern tropics will have drier air, but the warmer than normal temperatures will continue. Clear skies in the southeast with high pressure following the cold outbreak may see frost form for a number of mornings.

More to come from 8am EST with the weather video that I am preparing right now.