EARLY EDITION - STORMY CHANGE MOVING THROUGH THE WEST WHILE CLEARING OVER SOUTHEAST WITH WARMER DAYS
Good morning, we have made the end of the week which is great!!! But the weather is certainly not turning on warm and fine weather for the west, where we see a large-scale cold front on the approach with severe weather possible today with a decent surge of moisture and widespread falls.
It is the opposite over the south, southeast and northern parts of the nation, where we see significant dry air in place over large chunks of the interior leading to the settled skies and lighter winds which is a nice change from the colder and cloudy windy conditions.
Some wet weather is expected along the coastal fringe of NSW and QLD this weekend too but that is not likely to last long.
Lots of moving pieces on the board in a complex weather set up so let's take a look
We are looking at widespread showers and windy weather over in the SWLD of WA and a band of rain developing over the Gascoyne and western Pilbara as well as extending inland to the Central West with moderate falls with thunderstorms. Storms may be severe in the west with damaging winds. Over the northern parts of the nation, gorgeous dry season weather. The east coast may see an increase of cloud cover with a few showers later tonight mainly north of Sydney to the Gold Coast.
Saturday 18th June 2022
The band of cloud passing through WA and passing into western SA with patchy rainfall begin to ease over the western inland as the lifting mechanisms are set to weaken. The east warm with a northwesterly wind but the east coast, weak instability with showers and coastal thunder is possible. This looks to be the warmest weekend in about 4 weeks for the east.
Sunday 19th June 2022
A broad band of cloud with the leading and weakening trough passing into SA may bring a little rain but not much. The lifting mechanism that is attached is being shoved south thanks to the block over the Tasman which you can see near NZ. The cold and showery weather continues over the SWLD with local hail and thunder continue and showers easing for the east coast.
Monday 20th June 2022
The front and low-pressure system moving into the eastern Bight begins to weaken on approach to VIC. Showers and periods of rain for SA will move eastwards. Moisture is expected to increase over the NT with afternoon cloud with a shower or storm about, and mostly fine elsewhere with temperatures above seasonal over the eastern inland and fine back over in western parts of the country.
Tuesday 21st June 2022
Rain and showers pushing through VIC with a weakening cloud band with the system dying over the region, with limited falls getting into NSW, so rainfall forecasts may be adjusted for this feature later this morning. Moisture streaming over the NT into QLD may produce a lot of cloud but not much rainfall. Fine back over in WA and SA as well as the east coast.
Thursday 23rd June 2022
The next cold front is on the way for the southeast with further showers and strong winds. Fine weather for the interior for now though moisture pools offshore the NT coast with a weak cloud band clearing from QLD. Colder back over SA and WA.
Friday 24th June 2022
Showers continue for the southeast and southern coastal areas in a broad westerly flow. Noting that the north there is no evidence of that large scale rainfall event that the GFS had last night. Colder in the west with showers and fine weather for much of the interior though cooler than normal over the eastern inland.
Saturday 25th June 2022
Next front passing through the southeast bringing windy weather and showery periods once again with that colder air surging northwards through SA. The southwest mainly dry with ridging so a drier looking weekend for WA at this stage next week compared to this week. Fine over the east coast, but that moisture is still flirting over the northern tropics, but no lifting mechanism in place.
I will mention that the weather is of low confidence and these ideas below are still on the board and I will discuss them later on in the weather video.
MEDIUM TERM - JUNE 28-30TH 2022