EARLY EDITION - SHOWERS INCREASING FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST TODAY - DRY ELSEWHERE.

But all the action still lay in the weekend systems coming through WA and into the Bight and the more robust and vigorous expression of the westerly wind belt next week which will inhale and draw upon all the moisture over northern and northwest Australia.


A deep trough over the southeast and south of the nation next week will be reinforced next week by a very strong system that will move through WA with additional severe weather risks out west and then this system will merge with the system in the east which sets up significant wet week for many areas.


There will be A LOT of information on a plethora of weather weeny web pages showing you all the colorful rainfall chances, but quite frankly each system is carrying a low confidence forecast strap as the former system will impact the following system and the system to follow that. More rainfall is expected to feature as we move through into the second week of August.


So, we see a run of wetter weeks and the wetter as we go forecast looking to verify.


Here are the key parameters ahead of the weather video in a few hours.


Upper Air Pattern

The wave train is cranking, and when we start to see the rainbow wave impacting the nation's south, this is when we can expect to not only see more rainfall and frequent rainfall chances, but gale force winds. Severe weather related to damaging wind events could feature heavily in the coming weeks so be aware of that if you are exposed to the northwest to westerly wind regime. The waves are quite sharp and could also form into low pressure systems as they push through the country which may enhance severe weather chances.

Simulated Satellite Imagery - Next 2 Weeks

A very active weather pattern with high levels of atmospheric moisture, a tightening thermal gradient where there will be a clash between the warm moist air and the colder drier air in combination with the strong wind fields associated with the jet stream aloft and the presence of low pressure = plenty of cloud bands, thunderstorms, rain, gales and the Spring weather that we associate with September coming about a month earlier.

Moisture Spread

The moisture values are still unchanged over the coming weeks and the guidance is expected to stay very much on course with moisture spreading from northwest to southeast throughout the nation with moisture then thinning out a tad over Southern Australia as the pattern becomes more dominant westerly with the wave train but the deeper moisture over northern Australia needs watching. We could see major moisture surge over the NT and QLD which may lead to above average and early season rainfall coming through in the medium term in the presence of an upper trough.

Temperature Anomalies - Daily anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The temperature anomalies here show the battle between the cold air and the warm moist air, and this is the battle that is more reminiscent of Springtime, but it is coming early this year, and this will lead to widespread rainfall developing. We can see that unfolding in the short and medium range. The warmer and more moisture that is involved in the jet stream, this will lead to higher chances of above average rainfall, dynamic weather, severe weather systems and thunderstorm outbreaks. The elements are there for this to unfold.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies paint the picture over the coming 2 weeks with the drier bias over the south of the nation starting to leave the western and southern parts of the nation and then seeing well above average rainfall signals developing for southern and southeastern areas and also developing for much of the interior and through to NSW and QLD. This highlighting that the negative IOD phase is well and truly developing and also unfolding as it should at this time of year.

More coming up from 8am EST with a look at the latest short and medium term forecast with a deeper dive at each day through the forecast packages.