An active day of weather is set to unfold across the country as we see a large wave passing over Southern Australia bringing windy weather and showery condition to many locations but there is the chance of seeing more widespread rainfall developing over the southwest and southeastern inland areas of the nation today as major weather systems continue to unfold.
The major weather event in the east will be the outbreak of thunderstorms over the southeastern inland leading to above average rainfall developing and gale force winds.
The other major weather event is the breadth and scope of the gale to storm force winds across western, southern and southeastern areas of the nation as the wave train continues to drive the wet weather here.
Also not forgetting the very much above average temperatures across the nation and in advance of the wave passing throughout the nation by the weekend.
The heat will build further over northern Australia, but we are set to see dry southeast to easterly winds to continue.
Upper Air Pattern - Next 2 Weeks
A vigorous and energetic wave pattern continues with a southern branch of the polar jet whipping through Southern WA tonight and racing through the Bight over the coming 24hrs leading to significant wind issues for many locations in the south and the meeting of the polar jet and the subtropical jet leading to major rainfall chances over the southeast inland. Significant showery weather may continue for the south of the nation into the weekend before we see more waves passing through the westerly wind belt next week. Some of those could pack more of a punch than what is being modelled here.
Simulated Satellite Imagery- Next 2 Weeks
The satellite imagery at the moment is vigorous and below, the coming two weeks shows more opportunity for widespread rainfall to follow this current event. Now if we see less wind involved with the follow up systems, the rainfall may be more general and areas that are rain shadowed in a westerly wind regime, may see better opportunity for rainfall than what is currently suggested. Watch that moisture offshore WA towards the end of the period which could provide more widespread rainfall for the second half of the month and also, I would be watching the potential for cloud bands to develop over the northern areas of the nation too from the soupy waters of the tropical seas north of the NT and QLD.
Moisture Spread- Next 2 Weeks
The moisture spread remains unchanged from previous runs, and you can see from where the cloud bands from above, the deeper moisture is right there with it. That is thanks to the low pressure being IN RELATIONSHIP with the moisture. We can get moisture running throughout the nation as we have seen earlier in Winter with no trigger. So where the low-pressure forms, this will support the rainfall ticking up in coverage and at the moment, under the current climate guide, it is over the southeast and south of the country and at times through the interior.
Temperature Anomalies- Next 2 Weeks
Not a whole lot of change but the warm bias that this model has been showing is starting to wane a little for the southeast and southern parts of the nation as there does appear to be more influence from the Southern Ocean westerly wind regime leading to the cooler air working over the southern states. Warm air being dammed back over the northern parts of the country with the humidity values possibly increasing a tad.
Rainfall Anomalies- Next 2 Weeks
Rainfall anomalies adopting a more negative SAM phase through the next 2 weeks, but with the evidence mounting for more moisture to work through the interior and via the jet stream thanks to the negative IOD, we are likely to see rainfall rates chopping and changing and I would not be surprised at more widespread inland rainfall emerging through the forecast so keep watch. The ingredients are there.
I will have more on the state of the severe weather risks coming up from 8am and a look at the broader weather picture for the coming 1-2 weeks.