EARLY EDITION - RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AS FORECAST - BUT WHAT IS FURTHER AHEAD?

Hello everyone, as expected the rain events over the northeast of the nation and over the southwest of the nation are well and truly underway while the severe frosts continue over the southeast with clear skies and light winds. More gloom for the east coast of NSW and remainder of coastal QLD with the onshore flow persisting on the top of high pressure.


Dry, it seems as always for SA through to the NT.


But will things start to change and what are the mechanics to watch over the course of the next 1-2 weeks?


Let's look at the items this morning before I start preparing the video for you at around 8am EST. I have a few radio crosses to get to as well this morning as well.


Upper-Level Pattern - 18000ft - Next 2 Weeks

The fast flow pattern that we need at this time of year to bring the widespread rainfall over Southern Australia, looks to come eventually, knocking out the 4th upper low of Winter out of the nation's east and by the early part of next week, we may start to see some of that frontal weather impacting WA spreading into SA and then the southeast with some rainfall, nothing to scream about, but the pattern looks to reset at least. Into the medium term, there are some stronger signals for the wavy flow to move northwards leading to higher chances of rainfall and windy weather over the nation's south and with moisture running through the jet stream and above average temperatures likely to develop thanks to the shift in this pattern to westerly winds, there could be some interesting dynamics to play with to produce more significant weather events than are currently be forecast by model agencies.

Simulated Cloud Coverage - Next 2 Weeks

A few cloud bands can be seen in the outlook period, including the one we are mapping in real time over WA which is producing significant rainfall as well as the major rainfall event offshore QLD which is a direct result of the elevated SSTs in the Coral Sea and the moisture being lifted by low pressure. This will play out over Australia in the weeks ahead, and we can see 2-3 simulated rain events running from northwest to southeast through the Southern States which would be a welcome shift. Not surprising given the current climate drivers in play but the idea is still there for more impactful rainfall and temperatures on the climb through the weeks ahead and that is being picked up on this particular product.

Moisture Spread - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture load has not changed too much in the short term, but it will be the placement of low pressure to the moisture that will dictate the rainfall spread across the nation as we move through the short term. But excellent signs continue to build for SA, VIC and western inland parts of NSW where rainfall may return to areas that need a little top up and quite frankly crop saving falls in SA. The moisture stream over WA is consistent and what you would expect to see at this time of year for the SWLD of the country. This will spread eastwards at some stage during the end of the month and the early part of July as you can see ahead looks interesting. With temperatures rising this as well could see moisture values well above the average through August as well which is beyond the range of this chart.

Temperature Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The nation is warming up over the course of the next 2 weeks and while this may be welcome for many, and a concern for some, this is what is expected under such climate guidance given the elevated SSTs across the nation. What is a concern to me under this arrangement is that the quicker the nation warms up, the more moisture it can hold, leading to more rainfall with each event passing through. That also comes into play with the colder drier air spreading northwards through the Southern Ocean and with this clashing with the potentially warmer and more humid air sitting over the nation, there could be some very dynamic weather heading into August and beyond. I have been talking about this risk for a while, now we need to see it verify.

As mentioned more coming up from 8am EST and a look at the ENSO outlook from 11am EST today with the latest on the chances for La Nina playing a huge part for out Summer 2022/23.