EARLY EDITION - MONDAY MORNING - RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH THIS WEEK, DRIER WEST.

Hello everyone, we start another working week still under the dominance of high pressure ut as many of us experienced through Sunday, a colder air pool is moving northwards in a southerly flow through the southern and eastern inland with a new high starting to edge in from the west, leading to the colder starts this week.


But for many over northern and eastern Australia, an increase in cloud is likely to lead to an increase in rainfall with the chance of above average rainfall for parts of the NT and into QLD, some of this could spread southwards into NSW over the weekend, but the models are not especially in harmony over this idea.


Where models are more aligned is giving WA a below average rainfall spread and this extends into parts of SA with that thanks to the high over the region.


There have been signals for a more robust weather event to emerge through the westerly wind belt during the latter part of the week south of the nation, shifting a cold pool towards the southeast which may cut off into an area of low pressure, and given the SAM is currently positive, with the extra moisture load available, this could lead to more widespread falls that what we are seeing projected.


Let's take a look


Monday

Showers over the southeast decreasing with a ridge moving in. Cloud continues to thicken over the northwest and north of the nation, but rainfall limited and mainly coastal. Fine and dry in the west and over the interior and into QLD even with cloudy skies. The main impact of the cloud is those below average temperatures and below average solar hours.

Tuesday

Thick cloud but not a huge amount of rainfall through the interior, with below average temperatures. A cold front approaching southern SA may produce a few showers at night for the Ag Areas. Fine weather for most of WA with cloud clearing. The risk of severe frost overnight into Tuesday morning is very high for the food bowl in the east.

Wednesday

Thick cloud cover with areas of rain through the NT, western QLD and into northwest NSW and northeast SA with local thunder possible. The west is dry under ridging and colder in the southeast with overcast conditions and cold southwest winds.

Thursday

Rain and cloud continue for parts of the east, mainly patchy falls, but thunderstorms near the NT coast could produce heavier and anomalous rainfall amounts. There could be a larger band of rain along an upper trough moving through SA and into VIC so will have to watch trends in the days ahead. Fine and dry in WA.

Friday

Rain band intensifies in the east and northeast of the nation in advance of an upper low that is sitting over interior parts of NSW with moderate to heavy falls developing and flash flooding a threat later this week. Showers and cloud with below average temperatures for the NT. Dry elsewhere with below average temperatures near a high over the Bight.

Saturday

Widespread rain and thunderstorms over QLD and NSW with moderate to heavy falls and a flash flood and riverine flood threat. Showers and thunderstorms easing over the NT and showers decreasing for VIC. Dry most elsewhere. Classic Indian Ocean Dipole influence.

Sunday.

Deep low off the NSW coast and a trough extending back over inland NSW and QLD leading to above average rainfall with the chance of severe weather for the east. Showers for parts of eastern VIC. Most elsewhere dry under high pressure and dry air. A front may approach the far southwest of WA which could be the first chance of rain for the sequence next week.

Check out the video from 8am EST for more context behind this and more of the data and my forecast charts which I am curating right now this very early and cold Monday morning in the southeast.