EARLY EDITION MONDAY MORNING - A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE FLOW PATTERN OPENS THE DOOR TO ACTIVE WEATHER.
A broad band of cloud and areas of rain continue to impact southern parts of the nation today, but more likely to be found over the southeast today and extend into southern NSW.
It’s a cold start in the southwest inland as a high start to nose in and that high will be the dominant force from mid-week. The weather is expected to be quite settled from mid-week across the nation as we all take a breath after a busy few days.
But the weather is expected to shift throughout Thursday in the west with a few showers developing but tending to more persistent areas of rain and windy weather for Ag Areas out west.
For the remainder of the week, the east coast is dry with a westerly flow and dry weather across the inland but we may see some widespread cloud forming over the weekend into next week as the jet stream becomes more energetic and laden with moisture so we may see inland rainfall chances increasing.
Upper Air Pattern
That looks more like July with the wavier flow moving through the Southern parts of the nation with the jet stream riding on the northern flank of the wave train building throughout the outlook period. The moisture spreading throughout the battle zone between the warmer air to the north and colder air to the south may lead to severe weather events and a higher chance of low pressure developing over the country. The active start to August starting to strengthen on the charts but we need more agreement across the global models to support this idea further.
Simulated Satellite Imagery
Multiple cloud bands still continue to be modelled on several global models with the greater coverage in cloud cover coming through the weekend into the following week. The moisture is expected to interact with colder air to the south and warmer air to the north of the nation. The cloud bands developing through the jet stream will lead to widespread inland rainfall and potentially severe weather events.
The moisture profile continues to increase throughout the outlook but there is context to the moisture producing widespread rainfall and where that moisture combines with the low pressure will continue to chop and change resulting in rainfall moving around. But the TREND is for moisture increasing from the northwest and north and possibly via easterly winds in the coming weeks too thanks to elevated SSTs surrounding the entire nation.
The heat engine is alive and looking to increase in the coming weeks, and I will look at this in the next day or two in greater detail for you in northern Australia. The implications of higher-than-average temperatures this early in the season is promising for those who want rainfall. But in terms of severe weather, it increases the risk as we move through. The atmosphere on the current trends represents more of a September outlook which poses some issues in terms of the models factoring in the thermal gradient into the outputs in relation to the moisture streaming through the jet stream and colder air surging northwards at times.
More to come in the next weather video due in from 8am EST.