Yeah, it is a bit of Groundhog Day at the moment, but the weather is sharply wetter than normal over the north and east of the nation but sharply drier over in the west and south with this high amplitude pattern unfolding.
The pattern remains complex so expect surprise rainfall in areas that forecast to see a whole lot according to forecasts, that would be areas such as northern VIC, inland NSW and into the ACT and parts of western QLD. So watch the forecast trends closely and have the radar on standby.
The weather overall very dynamic with multiple rounds of severe weather to impact the east coast, where some areas could be hammered by a 1/50 year event.
Up north a 1/25 year event continues and a 1/30 year cool season surge for the tropics is likely in the exhaust of the sharp upper trough over in the east.
Everything should return back to seasonal conditions by the time we get to the end of next week.
Let's take a look at the latest information and the weather for the week ahead and the systems to watch!
The rain and thunderstorm activity over the east and north continue to feature today and that is likely to extend southwards throughout QLD and showers increase along the east coast of NSW with locally heavy falls tonight. Some flooding potential is possible through coastal areas of NSW as well. Fine weather most elsewhere with seasonal conditions grading to above average over the western interior.
Rain and thunderstorms continue for QLD with the band of rain contracting east through the day but increasing along the coast with the chance of flooding between Mackay and the Sunshine Coast. The showers and thunderstorms along the NSW coast will still drive heavy falls with the risk of flash and riverine flooding. Showers will also increase over the interior of NSW with moderate falls and this lurking closeby the ACT. Fine elsewhere and mostly dry with seasonal continues.
Rain and thunderstorms continue for QLD with the band of rainfall still lingering along the coast. Some of the rainfall leading to flash flooding but the intensity may ease for a period. Heavy rainfall continues along the NSW coast mainly north of Wollongong and to about Newcastle. But the rainfall may increase once again later thanks to a low forming on the trough offshore and tracking southwest. Rain continues over central and northern inland parts of NSW with moderate falls, and this may extend further west and south later thanks to the low approaching. Fine everywhere else with warmer weather over in the west and northwest, below average temperatures over the tropics.
Rain and thunderstorms with severe weather potential continues for NSW with a deep low moving along the coast, coming ashore near the Illawarra. Some rainfall could be intense and lead to dangerous flash flooding near and south of the low. Rain easing over the inland of NSW later as the upper low shifts north into QLD. In QLD, widespread rainfall continues under the upper low and near a surface trough with locally heavy falls and flooding issues for the Capricornia and Wide Bay. Fine through the south and central parts of the country but a front approaching WA later, could see showers return later in the day with a windy warm day ahead of that.
Showers decreasing in WA as a front that moves through overnight moves into the Bight. Rain and thunderstorms over QLD continue, with heavy falls and flash and riverine flooding persisting for the central and southeast QLD coast, but the rainfall should begin to move further east through the day. Showers increasing along the coast with areas of rain near a low moving inland east of the ACT with heavy falls, easing during the day. Showers with some moderate falls over the southern and central inland also easing during the day. Fine weather most elsewhere with warmer weather developing in the southeast but still cooler than normal over the NT.
Widespread showers about the east coast of NSW with strong southerly winds continuing as a deepening new low offshore slowly moves towards the east. Showers decreasing over QLD with the trough also lifting offshore. A large high moving over the southeast will clear the interior with temperatures moving above average throughout with a warm and humid airmass left over. Cooler than normal over the tropics but dry and becoming drier and breezy in the west ahead of the next cold front.
Another cold front lurking offshore WA may bring some late showers to the Capes later in the day. Fine weather ahead of that extending through SA and into the southeast, though with colder air lingering and moisture still left over from the easterly rain event, there could be some afternoon cloud and scattered showers and hail about. Fine weather returning through much of QLD and over the tropics with temperatures still below average. Showers decreasing for the NSW coast during the afternoon and evening, but it may be a brief lull.
More coming up including a look at the coming 6 weeks, my latest overview on that after 11am EST this morning and a look at the severe weather potential in the east and northeast. Broader update this evening for the nation as we head into the weekend so look out for that.