EARLY EDITION - FRIDAY AM - THE SHOWERS INCREASING FOR THE SOUTHEAST, BIG FRONT IN THE WEST SATURDAY

We have finally lost that torrential and anomalous rainfall spread over the east and north of the nation with the flow pattern returning to the west, that means drier conditions over interior parts, spreading to the east coast and frontal weather allowed to sweep through the increasing flow, bringing showers to southern parts of the country.


Now while it is looking more typical of Winter, the rainfall and temperature spread remains someone anomalous, below average rainfall for pockets of southern Australia will continue under the current guide and the below average temperatures over northern and central Australia too are sticking around.


But now we have lost the high amplitude pattern and are moving into a more zonal flow throughout the period, that means being able to find the next rainfall event of substance becomes a little easier in the medium term and we already have some rumblings.


Upper Air Pattern

The battle between the departing blocking easterly regime and the return of westerly winds over Southern Australia will continue over the coming week with frontal weather impacting southern Australia but having a larger impact over the SWLD of WA where the strongest front of the sequence comes in from Saturday and continues to move east on Sunday. But with that persistent easterly block being shoved out little by little, it will take a few more fronts to push the bastard along and it will leave the east eventually next week, making way for a more mobile weather pattern. More unstable weather is set to form over the interior and poi

Simulated Satellite Imagery

So you can see the pattern becoming more mobile throughout then coming week but you can also see the blocking situation in the Tasman killing off the cold fronts as they come east and that will be a source of interest over the weekend and next week. What wins out over the weekend and into early next week will determine weather coming through WA and then points east this time next week, so do not think that everything is set in stone for southern Australia just yet.

Moisture Spread

The moisture content I believe is going to increase markedly through the back half of the month, the question will be, can it connect with the upper-level instability present at the end of the period to round out a very active month in the east but bring back reasonable rainfall to parts of SA and VIC?

More coming up from 8am EST with the next weather video where I will break down the short-and medium-term forecasts.