EARLY EDITION - CLEARING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST BUT THE FOCUS IS ON QLD FOR THE WET STUFF.

The rest of the nation, back into a large high we go and settled weather developing for many in southern and southeastern areas of the country. A wretched blocking high is forecast to sit over Tasmania and create the dry weather for these areas of VIC and SA and a lot of the interior quite frankly, but also work with an upper low to bring the wet weather back to the east coast and heavy rainfall into QLD.


Out west, somewhat normal weather continues with the frontal weather passing through at regular intervals, however with the blocking high in place over the southeast, these fronts will not be travelling towards SA, VIC or NSW through this week with any force and no rainfall is expected.


But temperatures will be rising markedly throughout the latter part of this week into the weekend.


Let's see the latest parameters and ingredients around.


Upper Air Pattern

The upper air pattern, so nice and mobile with that weekend front, well that is it for that weather, with the cut off low developing over SA and then deepening over QLD and remaining slow moving through the week into the weekend driving the unusual weather and above average rainfall through the east and northeast of the nation. The southwest dealing with multiple waves will do fine out of the blocking pattern out east as that keeps the long wave trough close enough to region to keep the rainfall going at regular intervals. Dry weather for the northern tropics.

Simulated Satellite Imagery

The block is back with a major and long duration rain event nearby the QLD coast triggering widespread above average rainfall for this time of year. The event won't conclude until the weekend and this combination with the high to the southeast of the nation will block the passage of strong cold fronts moving through SWLD of WA. That means the drier areas will be SA and VIC and a lot of inland NSW. The weather will start to become a little more mobile possibly from around a week from now. So some hope the rainfall can return to the southeast inland then.

Moisture Spread

The moisture content about the west the nation is what should be viewed at this time of year with the warmer waters developing offshore WA. We are seeing elevated rainfall in comparison to what models are predicting which is a sign that the moisture will play a part in increasing the rainfall locally for some areas along the west and south coast above forecasts. The moisture in the east for this time of year throughout the period is excessive and will open the door to above average rainfall. There is the chance of severe weather with the moisture content that high. The moisture seems to distribute throughout the south and east of the nation, but the absence of any lifting mechanism renders this moisture useless, unless we see low pressure form over SA and VIC.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

July 24th - August 1st, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture over the northern parts of the nation is of interest as lingering impacts from the rain event this week will be ongoing in the presence of the upper low that will move over the Coral Sea. This could send moisture back via easterly winds over QLD before sweeping southeast in the jet stream northwesterly winds that return to the NT and Central Australia with a long wave trough moving through WA and into the Bight. That will spread moisture from the Indian Ocean into the SWLD with reasonable frontal coverage, so rainfall could be near or above seasonal.

Rainfall Anomalies

Trimmed back the chance of above average rainfall over the southeast inland, I am not satisfied in consistency from the modelling, however with the chance of more moisture coming back via the easterly winds early in the period, there could be another round of showers for eastern QLD and NSW. Rainfall over the SWLD could be marginally above normal in pockets. Drier bias continues for SA.

Temperature Anomalies

The nice warm up continues ahead of the long wave trough passing over the SWLD of WA. The coldest air with that will stay offshore to the south of the state. Cooler bias continues for the northeast tropics with a higher level of cloud cover and showers in onshore trade winds.

More coming up from 8am EST with the next weather video looking at the national issues and lots more to come throughout the day on the weather to watch more specifically.