The weather is certainly showing the influence of the higher-than-average sea surface temperatures around the nation and the impact on rainfall is also reflecting that, with record rainfall for some parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Interior of WA. But does that rainfall make it further east? Does it signal what is to come for Winter and Spring as the Indian Ocean Dipole strengthens?
We have rainfall developing in the east this weekend and spreading down the NSW coast into next week, does that moisture roll into the eastern interior leading to showers and storms developing in a more humid airmass for the southeast and east next week?
The strongest fronts of the season thus far are forecast to impact WA this weekend with some of that filtering through to SA and VIC later next week, but when does that ridge over the southeast move away far enough to make room for these fronts to bring rain back to the southeast areas that have missed out on the rainfall?
These questions will hopefully be answered in some regard in the updates today.
Let's take a look at the systems to watch.
Significant rainfall today will weaken as it approaches SA and stormy weather over the SWLD overnight will move eastwards today. Colder in the southeast with a few showers but mostly fine weather is expected elsewhere with high cloud through the interior and dry and humid weather up north.
The moisture from WA merges with the moisture in the easterly winds over QLD and NSW on Friday with rainfall becoming more widespread with the heaviest falls likely over the eastern coastal areas of the Wide Bay and SEQ coast. The west mostly dry, with scattered showers about in a moist airmass. Frosty starts in the southeast could be severe in SE NSW and the ACT but mostly dry and sunny weather to follow.
The upper trough deepens over QLD on Saturday with severe weather possible with heavy rainfall about. Trough over inland WA could see a few showers and storms by afternoon and we could also see a few showers and thunderstorms over northern NSW and southern QLD with another trough. Fine weather most elsewhere, but morning frost over the southeast inland again and dry and hot over the north.
Next strong system comes through the SWLD on Sunday and there is the chance of a cloud band attached to that. A weak trough passing through SA may see a few elevated storms produce some light falls of rain through the day but the high in the southeast will erode any severe weather. Upper trough clears off QLD leading to drier weather developing. Fine and warmer weather developing across the nation in a more humid northeast flow.
A strong cold front move into the Bight on Monday but will be sliding southeast, as it is up against the strong ridge over TAS. Rain and storms come into western SA during the day with moderate falls. Cold air pool following the front will bring showers, hail and thunder to the SWLD. Hot and drier over the north of the nation and well above average temperatures developing over SA, VIC and NSW/ACT in a northwest flow.
Strong cold front tries to push into SA by this time next week with a band of rain and thunderstorms leading to some of the better rainfall chances that the state has seen in weeks. Fine weather over the eastern inland with well above average temperatures. Drier weather back in WA, though cold with high pressure moving in. Local morning frost is possible for the SWLD.
A band of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continues to move through QLD, NSW and VIC with a colder shift to follow. Another strong cold front is forecast to move into SWLD of WA with yet another broad area of moisture being drawn into the feature leading to above average rainfall.
Interesting signals for rainfall in the longer term too, the shift to cool season rainfall looks stronger, and the frontal weather may start to have higher chances of impacting the synoptic pattern moving through the coming weeks.
More on all of this after 8am EST.