No real change in guidance overnight with a trend for more warm days and sunny ones at that, for the first half of this week at least.

Noticing a little bit of moisture sitting off the coast over the Indian Ocean this morning which I will continue to watch in the coming days given the chance of frontal weather moving through the SWLD mid week may tap into this.

But for the most part, it will be dry and mostly sunny for many locations for Monday and Tuesday with a nice airmass.

Satellite imagery for Monday 10th May - Valid at 10am WST.

The air being so stable for the majority this week will mean that any cloud band or front coming into the region, will produce little rainfall and more likely a lot of high cloud.

So for now we have one front that will pass through the SWLD during Wednesday. That is as a ridge of high pressure consolidates, with one centre to the east over the Great Australian Bight and another centre developing off the SW coast. That will see a weak front take advantage of that gap and move through the region, producing light showers for the most part. 10-20mm may fall in the southwest of the SWLD.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Guide largely unchanged overnight so the forecast is still valid for Monday May 10th 2021.

Euro 500mb flow chart - showing the upper ridge dominating for the most part of the next 10 days, before the next major frontal passage approaches towards the end of next week, in line with medium term forecasting.

Things return to fine from Thursday after morning light showers about the southern coastline in southerly winds.

Then another burst of very warm weather is expected, with a run of days into the mid to high 20s about the west coast.

Above average temperatures for the next 10 days right across WA with the colder than average staying east, on the onshore wind flow side of high pressure and near cold fronts rearing up from the southwest. So a nice warm spell on the way. Euro Ensemble forecast 12z run. Valid May 10th 2021

High cloud coming from tropical moisture over the Indian Ocean, via the jet stream could cap some of the temperatures during the weekend, but overall it will be mild, with warm nights and warm days coming up.

The next major rainfall looks to approach from about the 20th of May offshore, with a warm run of weather continuing to that point. Rainfall could start to increase from May 21 onwards through the region with a major shift back to cooler than average weather following that event.

Rainfall spread from the Euro Model - Next 10 days. Raw data - this will change. Valid May 10th 2021.

It is a long way out to be specific but for now it is a trend to keep an eye on. However medium term forecasting does still have a wet end to the month and start of June for this region, so make the most of the dry weather while you can to get things in order if you are living on the land or managing stock. Temperatures are soon to plummet as well.

Want more information about the weather coming up for your part of the world? Would you like tailored forecasting or a weather chat? Let me know and email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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