Though some rain may skirt the southern border with NSW, but essentially it is dry and stable weather for a good part of this week under the subtropical ridge in place.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Valid Monday 12th of July 2021.

A traditional winter setup will leave most of QLD dry this week with a continental westerly airmass in place and being close to the upper high over the tropics bringing above average temperatures. The flow will cool down a little during the weekend as some of that colder air filters in from NSW. But essentially it is smooth sailing for many. Perhaps some light and patchy rainfall with cloudy skies mid week as a cloud band drifts through but otherwise it is looking dry.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values next 10 days - Valid Monday 12th of July 2021.

There are some impressive values sweeping the country for July, but for QLD, even though the numbers are elevated, the air is too stable, and therefore the PW values/moisture cannot be lifted into areas of widespread rainfall this time around. There will be lighter falls for southern areas and the odd moderate fall along the NSW border but for now I am keeping the bulk of the state dry. The only area of interest for me is whether the cold air can trigger some thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon or Friday over the southeast corner as a front slips through. Also keep watch on the secondary system over WA next week as that could have some impact on the east or south.

00Z Euro - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 12th of July 2021.

Rainfall looks to be over NSW for the most part with light falls flirting with the southern border. Some light showers along the QLD coast, may have a bit more punch to them over the tropics but again that is conditional on the easterly winds dragging down a weak wave. Overall the only interest as I mentioned above is if we can see thunderstorms develop along the cold dry line moving in later this week. They could pack a punch with a hail risk.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 12th of July 2021.

Rainfall looks to be mainly south of the border but a few mm is possible during mid week with a cloud band drifting through. The main focus of interest is later in the week when showers and storms may develop with the colder dry line but it is a low risk for now. Showers along the QLD coast mainly morning and night. A dry weather under strong upper high with temperatures above average.

More details to come.

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