After the mammoth April rainfalls over the tropics, things have quietened down now with dry season in full swing through the NT and Cape York.

Showers have largely become isolated along the east coast away from SEQ with the easterly winds dropping out as an upper low works it's way through the southeastern inland of the country

Weather Matters Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days - QLD. Valid May 5th 2021

We will see a ridge of high pressure nose into the east through the weekend and into next week, which will shift the winds into the east once again, so a few showers is expected along the QLD coast from Cooktown down to about Bundaberg in onshore winds.

Models are now starting to toy with the idea of moisture being drawn in from the north with the chance of some more widespread light rainfall developing ahead of yet another upper low coming through the eastern states early next week.

Precipitable water values for the next 2 weeks - GFS Valid May 3rd 2021

It is way too early to have any confidence in this idea as there are a few things that need to resolve weather wise before we can fairly assess this possibility.

GFS is keen on increasing the showers for coastal areas of QLD with that feature, the latest Euro says no. We won't know more on that until Friday once the east coast sorts itself out and the low moves away.

Upper flow pattern at 18000ft above the ground showing the dominance of the upper lows cutting off from the westerly wind belt.

Otherwise no real signs of rainfall for the inland at this stage for the coming week. There might be cloudy skies this weekend over the southern inland which may squeeze out 1mm of rainfall at best with a trough passing through.

We may have to wait for the end of the month for a pattern flip with no strong signal for rainfall until then, when perhaps a more dynamic weather system can evolve.

The climate outlook for May has started out in pretty good shape in terms of what we are seeing across the country so far in the first 5 days of the month.

May Rainfall Outlook - % chance of exceeding the median monthly rainfall for the month of May.

May temperature outlook - % chance of exceeding the median temperature for the month of May.

Need more forecasts that go beyond what the analysis does? Email me for tailored forecasts or the ability to have a web chat booked in - karllijnders@weathermatters.org

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