Certainly has been a strange week over the Top End, Kimberly and Cape York, with weather conditions more like what you expect in October. Overnight temperatures were very elevated with scattered showers and a few storms over the Top End and Cape York.
Rainfall anomalies - Month To Date. Valid Sunday 27th of June 2021.
Note the pockets of rainfall from the previous events through the northwest and north and over areas near Elliot. This is not highly unusual but we have not seen this a few years.
Moisture values are coming down further through this week, precipitable water values above 20mm will move off the northwest through the week with a southeast flow developing.
The dry season conditions look likely to remain in place for this period of 10 days.
Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days - Euro 00z run - Valid Sunday 27th of June 2021.
Last week we had the red shading over parts of the Top End, this week the dry season has returned and the locals are reporting gorgeous weather.
No significant return of moisture is likely at this stage over the coming 2 weeks, with a lack of cold fronts moving through the south of the nation, the frontal weather being drawn back to the Antarctic due to the westerly wind retreating away from Australia. That is a normal process through winter, the fronts will return in July.
This is the period, whilst for the next 10 days it is looking dry, that humidity can begin to pool as the southeasterly winds weaken and a northeast to easterly flow develops, especially as the lack of frontal weather drags on. So over this week, there may be some indications of showers returning to the coastal northeast and east of the NT and parts of Cape York.
WA you stay dry and sunny for now.
Synoptic pattern for the coming 2 weeks - GFS 00z run - Valid Sunday 27th of June 2021.
Note the moisture does come back over Cape York and NT through the end of the 10 day window as a new wave of low pressure pushes through southern Australia, this shifting the southeast winds through to the east or northeast, so that is the only interruption in the short to medium term in terms of the humidity returning.
It may be quiet over the north of the nation, but the wet season will be here before you know it. I will be looking at the wet season in the coming weeks and talking about early onset rainfall later this week.
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