• Dry weather for 10-14 days for central and eastern inland Australia

  • High pressure dominating the synoptic scale.

A big burley high pressure system is on the way through WA today, ridging through SA and Central Australia bringing a area of stable dry weather for these areas. The current long wave trough in our region is based through to the west of Australia and one is over the Tasman Sea today. An upper low is also causing the high in the west to slow its progress to the east, maintaining and extending the risk of dry weather for large parts of Australia.

Rainfall - Euro run 12z May 11th 2021 - showing the pattern of rainfall remaining largely coastal over the coming 10 days.

So consequently, forecast for rainfall over the inland is low until we get to the end of the month, inline with the medium term forecasting we were talking about 2 weeks ago.

Rainfall forecast - Next 10 days Valid Tuesday 11th May 2021

The overall pattern is what was expected through mid month, with high pressure dominating from WA through the southern parts of the nation and then into the Tasman by the time we reach the 16-17th of May.

Cold weather will persist over the east for the week as the high consolidates multiple times over the Great Australian Bight, bringing in a fresh west or southwest flow through the east, with cold fronts rotating through this pattern.

The long wave trough on the eastern flank of the high should move to NZ by the end of the weekend, with a stable airmass and lighter winds moving into the east. This will set the stage for major frosts for large portions of inland Australia with well below average temperatures forecast.

Conversely on the western side of the nation, where the high is dragging in warm and dry east to northeast winds, well above average temperatures are forecast to develop.

The temperatures will eventually heat up for the east as we get towards the weekend of the 22nd of May onwards, in a broadscale continental northwest flow. The west will then turn cooler with a return to cloudy skies, with rain and westerly winds as frontal weather begins to advance east from the Indian Ocean.

For farmers out west, still way to early to determine how dynamic those sets of fronts are, though medium term rainfall and flow pattern does indicate it could produce reasonable rainfall in the last week of the month. The below video from GFS shows that wave train setting up over the region towards the end of the forecast period.

Note weak signals for rainfall to come in over central WA with one of these fronts.

GFS 18z run showing the flow pattern at 18000ft over the coming 2 weeks.

So overall, those wanting rainfall in our food bowl, the wheat belt, the agricultural areas, not great news for now. We do have better signals as we go through the end of the month and to kick off June.

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