Rain is falling in many parts this morning and is continuing to become more widespread through this afternoon with thunderstorms forecast is random scattered spots as well. You can see the storm forecasts and guide for the coming three days here
Current Analysis - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.
A trough (black line) moving very slowly to the east bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon with moderate falls possible. Most storms are unlikely to be severe with a lot of cloud cover limiting surface based instability but rain could be locally heavy with the passage of the storm cells IF they form. If you get a storm, 25mm should be a fair bet. Scattered falls of 5-15mm likely for the remainder of the area east of the trough.
Showers along the east coast to continue, but be reserved for the NE of NSW and SE of QLD. Some of these showers could be sharp and gusty but the risk of thunder is now over for the meantime in the maritime air for the coast. 10mm is a good bet for many along the coast this afternoon, especially about the hinterland.
Patchy rainfall through southern NSW will continue to drift south and southwest with light falls for the most part. Falls of up to 5mm generally a fair forecast. Isolated thunderstorms in the region may produce very isolated falls of 10-20mm with small hail possible. The showers clear overnight into Friday ahead of a front. The dry air will move in over the southern and central regions of NSW, in between systems.
The main event comes tomorrow for northern and northeast NSW as the trough gains forward speed. It will be running into more moisture and instability so the rainfall coverage increases and becomes more productive. Thunderstorms may turn severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a risk. Inland areas of QLD turn dry.
I will have more details on this later this afternoon with the latest forecasts packages off the new data sets.
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