It could be right on time this year, for the start of the ski season over the Australian Alpine areas, snowfalls coming with a bitterly cold airmass in the coming week.
Snowfalls Forecast - Chances of seeing snowfalls next week. Valid June 1st 2021.
We have been tracking it together during the past few days for the big event coming next week, but as I keep saying, it is still a LOW confidence forecast given the distance it is from where we are today, and we have one system to get through over the next 3 days.
But briefly, a major push of cold air is likely over southern and eastern Australia next week, with a significant southerly push of air with a high amplitude pattern setting up over Australia.
Euro Model - 500mb/18000ft flow pattern showing that deep upper low passing over the eastern inland with very cold air trailing in a southerly airstream. That will be helped along by a strong upper high well south of WA squeezing a vigorous southerly flow over the central and eastern half of the nation. Next Tuesday 8th of June 2021.
Corresponding GFS for Monday into Tuesday next week shows a very similar picture but as the front standing up with a low forming along the front, keeping the coldest and wettest weather to the southeast mainland first before a deep low in the east, then surges the colder air north later on next week. So there are so differences to iron out in modelling, because these two scenarios will have very different outcomes to the rainfall, snowfall and cold air distribution.
Snowfalls below from Euro vs GFS and you can see the impact on the differences in the modelling associated with the distribution of the cold wintry weather.
GFS Snowfalls - Next 10 days - Valid June 1st 2021.
Note the influence of that cyclonic southwest flow wrapping cold air onto the western and southern slopes of the GDR with widespread snowfalls down to very low levels over the east. Possibly sea level in TAS under current guidance.
Euro Snowfalls - Next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 1st June 2021
The passage of the upper low with the coldest air over the mainland greatly reduces the snowfalls over the east, even though the air is bitterly cold, the precipitation will be less for the southeast. But heavy rainfall would be more of a feature through the east, with a warmer and moist airmass being drawn in on the southeast to easterly flow.
So those differences in modelling will take some time to iron out which you will find won't become clearer to Sunday once the lead system is off the board and out to the east.
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