VIC - CLOUD AND WIND INCREASING TODAY - RAIN IN THE NORTH - SHOWERY WEEKEND.

The pattern is largely unchanged for the next few days as we have a low that is drifting through the northwest this afternoon bringing the chance of patchy rainfall to the Mallee and Wimmera regions. The rain staying mainly north of the Murray overnight into Friday.


A fast moving cold front and a follow up front for Sunday will see the state plunge in to cold, squally westerly winds with numerous showers and storms, hail and squalls, with blizzards at times over Alpine areas.


Snowfall may descend under 500m in some parts of the state.


Then next week, more frontal weather is developing, the gap of fine weather is becoming narrow, so we may only get one dry day across the state, if that, with frontal weather increasing as the westerly flow looks to ramp up once again.


More widespread rainfall and severe weather is possible again at the end of the period.


Lets have a look at the latest details.


Satellite Imagery

The cloud associated with the low pressure system wafting through inland SA is producing widespread light rainfall. The cloud and bulk of the rainfall is expected to spread through the northwest and mainly into NSW. Cloud will increase today. For the state, watch the fast flow frontal weather to the southwest of the low pressure as that will begin to move north over the coming 24hrs.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Low pressure moving through to the north of the state will take the rainfall and cloudband through NSW with patchy falls for northern areas possible but the best of it will be in NSW today. The frontal weather increases from later Friday and the weekend looks windy, cold and showery, with hail and thunder as well as low level snowfalls. Then next week, the fine day that I was suggesting may be in place, are looking like are being spoiled by a front passing through during early next week with more frontal weather moving through the state in the downstream northwest flow ahead of the large long wave. That will set up a wet end to the month and beginning of August.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged with the those areas exposed to a westerly wind regime to cop the best of it. The strongest fronts in the coming 10 days will be Saturday and Sunday then another one Tuesday and another one coming through next Thursday or Friday with probably more coming in after that for the weekend following.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro surface pattern is largely unchanged from last night with a fast flow pattern as per most global models, meaning the weather should be dominated by frontal weather. That means a front for VIC every 36hrs at this time for the week ahead. So more of the same to come.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall spread unchanged from last night with those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime to get the best of it, more widespread rainfall is possible later next week with a broad cloud band developing.

Rainfall for the next 2 days

I do think that the bulk of the south should be dry from this system but northern areas, rainfall that does develop should move through during this windows for the state, but the best of the rainfall will sit in NSW with this feature.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall spread has largely remained the same with the pressure pattern stubborn. I think we will see this chart bounce around a bit more from tomorrow as we see systems come and go but once again there is no dry period for the state, with light rainfall at times for the north at regular intervals and moderate rainfall with gusty conditions for the south.


Snowfalls for the next 10 days

And with 80cm falling over most resorts this week, another 50-100cm possible through this week to bring a base of 1.5-2m into place by next weekend for most higher resorts. Snowfalls are possible down to 400m in VIC during Saturday.

I will have a look at the wintry blast and severe weather threat later this morning and a two week outlook as well.

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