COLD OUTBREAK UPDATE.

** And a reminder that I have issued a graziers forecast chart for this event, which I forgot to repost with this**


Farmers and Graziers Forecast - Friday to Sunday - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.



A cold front has moved through SA this morning and is now on the way to western Victoria, but it is running out of steam heading into the brick wall further east over the Tasman Sea. Showers are evolving through the region with some moderate rainfall observed about coastal portions of SA this morning.


Observed Rainfall to 9am this morning.

10-20mm through coastal areas scattered. Top fall of 18mm at Cape Borda. Great to see falls a little heavier over the southern end of the YP. More showers are ongoing this afternoon with hail and possible thunder. As expected only light falls of 1-3mm moving through to the inland areas bordering Victoria.

The satellite over the east shows what this system is up against, it cannot surge through the inland areas meaning that the majority of inland areas should see less than 3mm if that! The colder air will move through but the air is dry and with high pressure moving in over the weekend, becoming more stable. So rainfall to stay strictly coastal.


Satellite Imagery - Valid 1pm CST - Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Satellite Imagery - Valid 1pm CST - Friday 2nd of July 2021.

The cold air field is broad and productive, and coastal areas of SA and southwest VIC may see an additional 5-10mm on top of what has fallen through Saturday afternoon, possibly more over the southeast of SA and southwest of VIC.

So the front is moving east this afternoon into Victoria, a low has developed to the south of Victor Harbour west of about Robe, that is expected to remain slow moving as it travels towards the east, so frequent showers continuing for the coastal areas of SA and southwest VIC with a large pool of cold air.


A pocket of thunderstorms and heavier rainfall has developed in the yellow zone and that is coming onshore with the risk of gusty winds and small hail as well as moderate rainfall.


The broader cold air field is filled with lower topped showers and possibly small hail and that will be in the region for the coming 24hours. The airmass inland dries out rapidly away from the coast, so the shower coverage will decrease markedly.


Cold Outbreak Analysis - Friday Afternoon July 2nd 2021.

Conditions will ease and clear by Sunday but before then a few days of showers will stack up for reasonable coastal falls.


Euro 18z run -Rainfall for the next 3 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Rainfall totals are increasing for the southwest coast and I may incorporate this into my evening forecasts, could be falls over 40mm for parts of the coastline if this verifies with that slow moving low.


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