COLD OUTBREAK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO BRING SOME REASONABLE RAINFALL TO COASTAL SA AND VIC.

The front and low pressure system now hitting the brick wall this evening over the Tasman Sea, is looking to bring a band of slow moving light to moderate cold rainfall to coastal and adjacent inland areas from Friday through Saturday afternoon. The rainfall sadly will not make it very far into the Ag areas, but there will be patchy falls up to 3mm at this stage, might get lucky with a bit more.


Satellite Imagery - Valid Thursday 1st of Thursday 2021.

The cold front starting to hit that block in the east and is slowing down with the secondary front likely to thicken up another rain band with cold air to follow. Best of the rainfall will be along coastal areas from the southern YP to the southeast coastal areas into southwest Victoria. Showery air will follow into Saturday.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

There are two events that are coming during the next 10 days so there is overlap continuing with rainfall totals. 10-20mm of rainfall possible for the southeast coast of SA and into southwest VIC in the onshore kick on the northern flank of the low pressure system following the band of slow moving cold rainfall on Friday. That rainfall will move across into Central VIC on Saturday and Sunday before clearing early next week. Another system then lines up the east in the 7-10 day window which may provide additional rainfall, with modelling placing the best of the rainfall through inland NSW, but I suspect this will change.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Rainfall light and patchy the further inland you are of the coast with this first system, some areas could go dry. Up to 20mm about the coast is possible with the first system coming through tomorrow before a low forms and showers follow the front on Saturday, but the position of the low places the best shower activity over the lower southeast into western VIC. Another system may arrive in about 7-10 days time and again not much showing up on modelling for this region, but I suspect that will change.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

The rainfall will be patchy during Friday with more showery weather expected through this region from Saturday afternoon into Sunday as the low passes to the south and places the region into an onshore southwest flow. 5-15mm with that through southern areas is fair and up to 20mm through the east of Melbourne into the Upper Yarra. Another system moving through in the day 7-10 window will bring showers, with better rainfall being pushed through northern VIC and into NSW, but this will change with that wave.

The synoptic pattern tells the story with the low pressure system, favouring the southwest of VIC and southeast SA in those onshore winds. Showers may be wintry with small hail and thunder through the region in a blustery high wind chill environment.


Euro 00z - Surface pressure pattern with rainfall distribution for the coming 10 days.

Note the moisture that flares over the eastern inland with that next wave later in the period. I do think that will bring rainfall into southern inland areas of the nation including SA and much of VIC. Something to watch.


Keeping an eye on the moisture in the medium term with a lot of it to work with, the moisture needs to be in phase with the fast flow pattern and we will be in business for more rainfall developing throughout the southern and eastern inland of Australia, with the rainfall not just confined to WA.


GFS 00z Precipitable Water Values - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Note the shades of green coming through the northwest to the southeast. There is more rainfall potential being indicated here than what is being anlaysed by the rainfall data at this time. So watch this space.

GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Note the rainfall piggy backing the region later in the period, I do think that could change in the coming days given the data above being signalled by the modelling.


FINALLY!


The wintry weather will create hazardous conditions for stock in the region, exposed to the wintry weather, after well above average temperatures during the past 2-3 days. The event is not long duration and is mainly for Friday through Sunday.


Farmers and Graziers Forecast - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021. - For the period Friday to Sunday.

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