Watching a nice rain event bypass a large part of the southeast this week with a trough setting up over the eastern inland and running into a good moisture supply but a cold front expected to bring the cold outbreak will push the system away from this region meaning, rainfall this week will be connected mainly to this front storming through on Friday.
Euro 00z run - Surface Pressure Pattern with rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
The cold front is out of phase with moisture from the northwest Indian Ocean and moves northeast from a position too far east to have any injection of moisture from that region. And it is too far west to run into any moisture that is coming in via the high pressure system. So it has split the difference beautifully it seems in the current guidance. Another system at the end of the run may bring more rainfall chances later in the period.
The cold that is anticipated to roll over the southeast is dry and the precipitation therefore will be rather light following the organised band of showers/rain that moves through on Friday. Some areas along the SE coast of SA and the SW coast of Victoria may see 10-20mm with the band of showers/rain on Friday with lighter falls extending inland to southeast inland and over Victoria and north towards Adelaide.
Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
Rainfall could be rather productive with the first system through southern and mountain VIC with moderate falls in the southwest flow on Saturday following the rain band through the southeast on Friday which will likely bring a gusty period and 5-10mm of rainfall. Dry over the far southeast now as the area sits in a rain shadow and the trough further north bringing heavy rainfall over inland QLD and NSW lifts out quicker. Another rainfall event could bring light to moderate rainfall next week through later next week.
With the system then lurking to the east of Tasmania during Saturday, the showers will clear out of SA with high pressure ridging in from the west. However, onshore southwest winds will move through southern and mountain Victoria, and with the bay effect, the wettest part of southeast Australia on Saturday could be the eastern suburbs of Melbourne with stream showers. Some suburbs could see 10-20mm of rainfall and soaking showers for the Yarra Valley and parts of West Gippsland and dairy country.
Conditions begin to ease Sunday as the high moves through to the southeast and sits over Adelaide by Sunday afternoon.
I will leave it at that for now, it will be mostly light rainfall for SA and the surrounding regions but will have to keep an eye on that system next week to see if that can bring rainfall in from the northwest and west with the next series of fronts standing up in the Southern Ocean as the SAM returns to negative values.
SAM Forecast for the coming 14 days - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
Note the positive phase this week quickly turns negative and resolves to neutral during next week so expect to see an increase in frontal weather for the region later in the period.
The Southern Ocean west of the nation also starting to get active as is the moisture pooling over the Indian Ocean which again may come into play during next week as the climate drivers start to favour rainfall for southern SA, VIC and southern NSW once again.
Euro - Simulated Water Vapour Satellite - Next 10 days - Indian Ocean - Valid Tuesday 29th of June 2021.
Note the frontal activity racing through the southern ocean begins to pick up next week with fronts moving north and increasing in frequency through the basin. And all that moisture over the northern basin needs watching too, can it interact with frontal weather to bring up rainfall later next week or the week after?
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