COLD OUTBREAK FOR THE SOUTHEAST - MAY END UP GIVING COASTAL SA SOME OK RAINFALL.

If you are living in the lower southeast of SA or southwest VIC, some reasonable rainfall may be on the way, thanks to a cold front that rolls through on Friday with a wintry rainfall, then the front stalling and a cut off low developing just offshore the coast. This sending in a strong and unstable southwesterly wind regime, and more showers into the weekend.


Even areas up the coast through Robe and as far north as Victor Harbour might better with the southwest flow. 10-20mm possible for the 2 days of rainfall.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

Pockets of reasonable rainfall for the southeast with the front rolling through during Friday into the weekend with a low expected to form at this stage to the southwest of Mount Gambier. Strong onshore winds will drive showers following a rain band moving through on Friday. Some of those showers could contain small hail and thunder. Showers will ease later Sunday throughout the southeast when the low starts to move further east. Clearance expected Monday before more showers develop later next week with the next batch of cold fronts.


Lighter falls are expected to extend inland, but once again with the configuration of the weather event and the nature of it being near stationary and compact in scale, the rainfall won't extend very far inland, so the Riverlands, Murraylands and into western VIC, through the Mallee and northern Wimmera, may not fair as well. 1-5mm at best with many seeing the lower end.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

Two rainfall events in 10 days bringing light falls, but better than nothing. The best of the rainfall reserved for coastal areas. Light falls for inland areas, may get you up to 5mm with a bit of luck. Rainfall odds improve from the northwest later next week - more details on that in the coming days.


Further east through southern VIC, the shower coverage may tend more isolated initially through central VIC south of the divide in a subsiding northwest flow, but once the low moves through to eastern Bass Strait, rainfall totals may improve in an unstable southwest flow and once again the eastern suburbs of Melbourne through to the Yarra Valley, Dandenong Ranges and into West Gippsland might fair with 10-25mm from the event.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.


Not much rainfall will make it further into East Gippsland or the southeast of NSW.


The system itself falls away by the time we start early next week, and then all eyes will be on the west of the nation with the next batch of strong cold fronts that will advance east during the latter part of next week with better rainfall odds once again for the southern and eastern inland.


GFS 00z run - Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

Keep an eye on that moisture over the Indian Ocean. More can be found here

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