A series of cold fronts embedded in a fast southwest flow through the southern ocean are expected to have some impact on weekend weather through SE South Australia, southern and mountain Victoria and Tasmania.
GFS 500mb chart for the westerly wind regime over the coming 10 days. This was valid from 07th May 2021.
The fast flow pattern is being generated by an active low pressure system to the south of the nation which has multiple frontal systems rotating around it's centre.
We can expect a weak front tomorrow with coastal showers and drizzle. A slightly stronger front is expected on Monday which will bring a better coverage of showers and cold air through Victoria and Tasmania. Following the front, possibly snow flurries returning to Alpine areas and local hail and thunder for coastal areas of Victoria and western Tasmania.
A weak ridge will come through the region mid next week ahead of a stronger front and colder air mass on later Thursday into next weekend. That system will be the strongest and largest in the sequence bringing more widespread showers to the same areas mentioned above.
Some light falls can be expected over the Agricultural regions of SA which will be welcome, better than nothing. More moderate falls are anticipated from about the southwest coast of Victoria through to West Gippsland. Moderate to heavy falls are anticipated this week coming over western Tasmania, where some areas may see 50-100mm of rainfall.
Weather Matters - Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days. * Inland rainfall over NSW and QLD may increase if an upper system does verify tapping into onshore winds later in the outlook.
This is classic mid May weather, in the absence of any strong cut off lows or large scale inland rainfall events, as the flow pattern moderates after what was a wild start to the month of May on both sides of the nation.
Temperatures will remain well below average over the coming week with onshore winds, heavy low cloud cover for much of the week and passing showers over coastal areas. Inland areas should be aware of the frost risk returning next week as the colder airmass settles in under that weak ridge of high pressure come Wednesday.
Temperature anomalies next week - Euro 00z run valid 7th May 2021.
For areas further north, there are forecast notes regarding the system lurking over inland NSW and QLD. That you can find in a separate post.
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