Widespread shower activity is expected to unfold from Tuesday through the southeast with a good chance of thunderstorms and hail and snowfalls dropping to low levels once again.
A real wintry mix for your Tuesday in Victoria.
But as we track through the week to 10 days, the weather systems keep on coming. A weakening low pressure system may bring a spell of rainfall to the northern half of the state with a band of cloud. Cold temperatures can be expected for large parts of the north with severe frosts followed by cloud cover and then rainfall, many may struggle to get above 10C.
A pair of strong cold fronts this weekend are difficult to pin down in terms of their intensity and scale as they rocket through the southeast with another burst of wild winter weather. The weather this weekend looks just like last weekend with widespread wet cold weather.
Into the medium term the weather is continuing to show fronts approaching with gusty northwest winds and even another chance of major cold weather if you believe the GFS in the medium term, however that is expressing the pattern will remain largely unchanged.
Lets have a look at the modelling.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The surface pressure pattern and rainfall is largely unchanged from this morning with widespread showers to continue off and on for Victoria during this period. Traditionally this is what you expect to see this time of year. The weather turns potentially wild over this coming weekend with a pair of strong cold fronts but this could change still and the models have at one stage suggested a whopping cold outbreak this weekend, but I think we won't know more until about Wednesday but a HEADS UP if you are in Victoria for the risk of damaging winds and very cold weather. Next week more fronts developing out west, the GFS brings in a high over the east, under that guidance the weather would turn drier and warmer.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning but the figures will bounce around in the coming days as they get a better handle on the weekend event. Also the models will start to include rainfall at the end of the 10 day sequence with another round of frontal weather.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Just like the GFS, Euro is seeing a very similar pattern evolving in the coming 10 days with widespread showers associated with fronts passing through. The weekend is expected to be the most dynamic with a deep low passing through the south of Tasmania. The weather is expected to remain persistence, that means what you have seen over the past week, that weather will continue.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall will bounce around as per the GFS and other modelling because the models will struggle to pin down the dynamic weather expected this weekend, so this be something to consider. The weather next week becomes active much more quickly than what GFS is showing with frontal weather already knocking on the door of VIC with thickening cloud from Monday next week and rainfall shortly after that.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is unchanged from this morning as the guidance from the model data across the board is really holding steady, so I won't change the rainfall forecasts. The charts will change tomorrow morning as we get better data on how that low evolves out of WA now that we have the front coming through SA and VIC in the coming 24hrs, and once that is on by through NSW and to the east during Wednesday, then we can see the impacts of that low pressure system coming through and the frontal package over the weekend. Rainfall also at the end of the run will start to be included in the coming days, as the 10 day window begins to absorb the next round of frontal weather.
Also there is the chance of severe frosts and a freeze for some parts of eastern Australia during the coming Thursday morning, so a heads up forecast for all residents in the regions impacted as the cold temperatures and frost/freeze could damage crops, stress stock and impact domestic water supplies if you are off town water.
And here is the snow forecast from earlier today for those wanting to see the impacts of the colder weather.
Snowcast - Next 10 days.
These numbers will bounce around as we get better guidance for the weekend events, but even the event tomorrow could bring snowfalls through the ranges in VIC and down to 500m. So the Dandenongs, Trentham, Macedon, Kinglake etc could see snowfalls.
More weather details to come.