COLD FRONT DELIVERING ACTIVE WEATHER TO WA THIS AFTERNOON

Active weather along a cold front, is descending on parts of the SWLD coastal areas this morning and extending north and east this afternoon with further rain and strong winds. Thunderstorms have also developed in association with this system as it rolls through the coastal areas, heavy falls and gusty winds being observed.


A cold pool following will also bring some showery weather with small hail and thundersqualls tonight. Damaging wind gusts are possible as this front moves through and within the cold pool that trails the front overnight and into Saturday morning.


Satellite Imagery - Valid 10am WST - Friday 9th of July 2021.

Beautiful presentation of the cold front racing through the southeast Indian Ocean into the southwest coast of WA with a line of thunderstorms developing ahead of the main front. A broad band of rain will engulf the west and southwest coast before moving through inland areas, weakening over land overnight. Showers, more frequent about the west and southwest coasts are likely overnight into Saturday morning but drier by afternoon.

State of Play - As at 10am WST. Friday 9th of July 2021.

Radar as at 1030am WST - Friday 9th of July 2021.

The showers are increasing rapidly in association with the pre frontal trough ahead of the front itself as you can see above. Widespread falls will extend to Perth after lunch and inland mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms could become scattered along the front with damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorm Forecast - Friday 9th of July 2021.

Thunderstorms are possible along a strong cold front that is set to sweep the southwest this afternoon and evening. Strong gusty winds and hail likely with the stronger storms that develop on the front. Coastal areas likely to be impacted more than the inland, but the risk of a thunderstorm lowers the further you are away from the coast. A trailing cold pool may continue the storm threat for the far southwest with small hail and gusty winds overnight into Saturday. There is a 90% chance of thunderstorms within 25km of a given point within the pink zones. For more details on the thunderstorm outlook - click here

The rainfall over the coming week still looking above average with a long wave trough parked to the west of the region, with weak high pressure racing through and bringing 18-24hrs of break between fronts at the moment.


That means the next front approaches from Sunday night.


GFS 12z - Surface pressure pattern and rainfall distribution for the coming 16 days.

The weather remains active, though the frontal weather becomes absorbed into a wavy pattern with large waves passing through, collecting moisture from the Indian Ocean and providing elevated rainfall chances for the period. Also during this time, heat will be building north of the jet stream over central and northern WA, which needs to be monitored as it could provide my atmospheric dynamics for inland rainfall later in the month and into August.

GFS 12z - Precipitable Water Values for the coming 16 days.

Note the higher moisture content coming through with larger scale frontal weather in the second week of this analysis, so rainfall will continue to be an issue for those who don't want anymore as we start to move into late winter.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 9th of July 2021.

Rainfall signals remain strong as you can see above for the coming 10 days, with moderate to heavy falls with multiple fronts rolling through. Also moisture is increasing for the west coast up towards Exmouth with a system in the back end of the 10 day window which may extend moderate falls well inland and possibly further north.

So a wild few days on the way, with the peak of the wet season providing this year!!


More details - email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org to find out about tailored forecasting.



22 views2 comments