Again another reminder for those who are basking in clear and sunny mild weather today that things are expected to turn during Monday from the south and west with a shot of quite cold air for late September.
This will increase the risk to stock exposed to the elements, especially where the combination of showers, hail, high winds and low level snowfalls will be ongoing.
Farmers and Graziers Forecast - Monday through Wednesday
Anticipated the coldest air impact stock will be Monday through Tuesday for the southeast states with a moderate risk extending over northern NSW into southern QLD. The risk then converts to a frost risk for much of the south and eastern inland with farmers on alert for heavy frosts through SA, VIC, NSW and QLD mid week onwards.
Broader view of the nation shows the dry air that is in place following the decay of the front over the weekend, but colder drier air is surging north from the Southern Ocean with the chance of widespread showers and hail developing Monday through Tuesday before the weather begins to dry out Wednesday and conditions turn seasonal Thursday.
A closer look at the southern areas of Australia.
State of Play Sunday Afternoon.
There is a lot of cold air working it's way north and a band of showers will start to develop along the lead front, but become more widespread and extend inland to NSW and eastern SA during Monday as the coldest air arrives. Local hail and thunder with snow to lower levels also anticipated.
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday.
Thunderstorms are possible about southeast SA and along southern VIC with small hail and gusty winds forecast with thunderstorm activity. There will also be some brief heavy rainfall but at this stage flash flooding is low with a dry airmass in place and the cells moving through at pace. Storms will fire along the boundary of cold air during Monday afternoon through southern NSW. Over the northeast of NSW and southeast QLD, isolated mid level thunderstorm activity may develop producing gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Severe weather is unlikely for all regions at this time, but in spring time expect the unexpected.
Small Hail Risk - Monday.
Cold air showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds through Monday, extending north through the afternoon into Southern NSW and the ACT where the hail intensity may be moderate to heavy given the day time heating process. The hail is likely to be below severe thresholds.
More coming up in the state based updates for the southeast with a look at the frost forecast for Wednesday to start with in greater detail, waiting for the latest data to come in to curate a forecast.