COLD AND SHOWERY OVER SOUTHEAST SA AND SOUTHERN VIC - HINTS OF MORE RAIN NEXT WEEK.

Rainfall numbers have come up in recent model data sets with moderate falls are likely to feature over the southeast of SA from about Robe southeast to the VIC border and running over the border east to about Jan Juc in Victoria.


The cause, a low pressure system that is slowly moving east through Bass Strait over the coming days, slinging cold and unstable onshore winds to the coastal fringe.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Widespread showers are ongoing through the southeast of SA tonight through to Adelaide and the hills but not much getting into the Riverlands and Murraylands. Light falls inland continue tomorrow with further showery periods and local hail for the southeast coastal areas of SA, with easing further towards the southern coast near Ceduna, westwards.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Significant shower activity is now likely for the southeast coast of SA and southwest VIC through the next two days with heavy falls also likely for the west coast of Tasmania with the low moving through Bass Strait. Those moderate falls now likely to run up the eastern suburbs of Melbourne with the bay effect and through dairy country around Leongatha and Foster in West Gippsland. Then rainfall returns next week with another front, falls are coming up further west through NSW and into SA but I will keep the falls light for now just out of being conservative.

Rainfall next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Most of this to fall through the coming 3 days especially the eastern side of Melbourne. Then another round of showers/rain later next week could bring an addition 5-15mm.

The raw data has been really quite persistent in increasing rainfall for the southwest of VIC and southeast SA. Euro has been quite good in handling the rainfall event for the east and the pace of this cold front. ALL models completely lost the plot with how to handle the low pressure system and it was GFS that was closest to the post with keeping the low west based on observed weather today.


Euro Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Note the early event, a period of dry weather then that rainfall event coming in next week and the numbers keep spreading further west into NSW and I suspect that will continue over the next few days.


I caution you that the rainfall rates taper off as you move inland. This weekend could be surprisingly cold and nasty for stock through the region so farmers and graziers be advised of that risk through Sunday.


Farmers and Graziers Forecast for Friday through Sunday. - Valid Thursday 1st of July 2021.

Conditions will ease from the west during Saturday and throughout the remainder of VIC by Sunday.

So the weather greatly improves and frosts will return to large parts of the inland from Monday through Thursday morning next week with severe frosts possible through VIC, SA, NSW and QLD. These are likely to be quite typical as to what you see during this time of the year.


Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and rainfall for the next 10 days. Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Significant shower activity for the southeast is out the door by Sunday afternoon. Then high pressure for 3-4 days with settled calm winter conditions, cool nights sunny weather, then all eyes on that moisture plume coming through the interior and linking up with a cold front to produce widespread rainfall. The models keep bringing the moisture further west every run so SA could see rainfall in the eastern third if that trend continues later next week, but further rainfall for VIC and NSW looks likely.

Euro 00z Water Vapour Satellite for the next 10 days. Valid Friday 2nd of July 2021.

Moisture will be returning from northern and western Australia next week with that fast flow pattern above likely to utilise that moisture for further rainfall opportunities coming from mid to late next week over the eastern and southern inland. So if you are living over inland QLD, NSW and VIC as well as eastern parts of SA, things are looking positive for follow up falls.

I will have further updates over the course of the weekend with a larger update on Sunday as we wait for the models to settle down for the system coming up mid to late next week. That one could be quite a productive feature if the moisture and the low pressure can develop over SA and draw in deep moisture layer over the state, that is not out of the realm of possibilities.


If you need more tailored forecasting, let me know, karllijnders@weathermatters.org





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