Not a great deal on offer rainfall wise with high pressure dominating for the first half of this week. Conditions have been relatively settled since about Friday with this high slowly moving over the region.
The high will journey to the east with conditions tending milder as the airflow tends northerly. This ahead of a cold front that is anticipated to travel through to the SA coastline by Wednesday.
Surface Pressure Pattern - 00Z GFS - Valid Sunday June 27th 2021.
The pattern is dominated by a large winter high that anchors itself to the east. This high does move far enough to the east to allow a weak front to come through mid week with some light rain and cloudy skies. A stronger cold front may develop over the Southern Ocean later in the week. It is a low confidence forecast, which means this could continue to ramp up or vanish from run to run. So watch this space.
The pattern is very typical after having quite dynamic weather last week which saw multiple days of rain and showery weather for large parts of the country. The only issue with that, parts of SA missed out AGAIN!
So when do we see rainfall again of any substance?
Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Sunday June 27th 2021.
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently trending into a positive phase meaning that rainfall bearing cold fronts generally contract south away from the nation in these periods, that is not unusual. But now we can see that developing in the climate drivers forecast and models are responding to this, rainfall looks likely to break out over inland QLD and NSW this week. I will note that the SAM moves back to neutral and if you watch the video above, you can see the frontal weather starting to return in the GFS medium term but again it is way too far out to verify that as a decent forecast. Just something to watch.
With the SAM positive no severe weather events or anything brutally cold is expected during this period.
The month of July should trend more active with most climate models suggesting a wetter month for many parts of southern Australia, including SA, so even though it is dry at the moment and many in SA and parts of VIC have fallen victim to bad luck, there are more positive signs moving through winter and spring.
I do think we have to get through one more period of dry weather, I am erring that the wet weather will build through July over much of SA, but there is nothing absolute about forecasting as you are well aware.
But while we get dribs and drabs, the tap could be turned on from August and not be turned off until December, which could lead into a very soggy and humid summer as the negative Indian Ocean Dipole starts to relax. You can find out more in the climate tab in the blog section.
Rainfall anomalies for August through October 2021.
Rainfall anomalies starting to improve over the southeast.
More details to come on the weather throughout SA and surrounding regions this week, it is a little quiet, but it is not completely dry either.
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