CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAINFALL FOR THIRSTY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INLAND.

Just to supplement the information out of the PM edition of the National Weather Picture for today, rainfall totals could be on the productive side for many later this week, some areas missing out on beneficial rainfall for most of this year could be in with some luck.


But as always, the rainfall brings mixed blessings to the many and so I hope it will be all things to all people.


Now, the rainfall numbers are increasing throughout the border region with NSW and QLD which is the bullseye at the moment for the more concentrated falls on current guide. But that guide is still a low confidence forecast.


Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Monday 28th of June 2021

Rainfall numbers are picking up, some modelling showing a lot more and a lot more further west of this region, but for now on the basis of the latest data coming in, this area seems the best chance of seeing half a months worth of rainfall at least from this event, probably more. But due to many other factors influencing this rainfall and the poor handling by the models thus far, it is likely these numbers will change and better clarity will be available come Wednesday.

The evening model data is encouraging none the less for widespread rainfall spreading through wide areas of the inland where many have missed out so far this year, but with the low confidence in the distribution of rainfall away from the border region over the northeast of NSW and southeast QLD, it would be wrong to increase totals further tonight, but that may change tomorrow.


ACCESS 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday June 28th 2021.

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday June 28th 2021.

GFS 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 28th of June 2021

CMC 00 Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday June 28th 2021.

The broader national view on the rainfall, and I stress again that these numbers will chop and change in response to the slightest increase in forward motion of the surface trough or the slowing of the trough through the east. That could mean heavier rainfall back towards the tristate border with SA is possible and may extend rain into the southeast inland with the front. There are many different solutions so watch this space.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Monday 28th of June 2021.

I may increase rainfall totals for far western QLD and NSW if the trend continues in the modelling overnight for rainfall to break out further west with the trough slower in it's approach to the east, thus meaning more moisture will be pulled in from the onshore wind regime over the east and lifted over more of the inland, before the trough and dry line moves through across the weekend as a front pushes over the southeast.



Current synoptic scale - Euro 00z run - with rainfall distribution

Again the slightest shift in forward speed of the upper trough, the forward motion of the front rolling out of the southern ocean over the southeast, if the upper high is firm and slower to move east, will mean the trough could be held back further west, bringing the rainfall chances back towards SA. There are many solutions to work out, more questions than answers at this time.


So understand it is a low confidence forecast, but we will see rainfall for areas that are crying out for it, though some areas are also not wanting rainfall as well, so watch this space as your fortunes may change tomorrow morning with the new updates.


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