CLIMATE - WHAT DOES THE END OF MARCH AND APRIL HOLD FOR US?

The weather certainly has turned it on in recent weeks for rainfall over the same regions leading to record rainfall for many areas in the east, over parts of the eastern inland. But in this stagnant pattern we have seen rainfall deficiencies emerge through southern areas of the nation, for parts of eastern SA and through areas of central QLD, which against the climate drivers is unusual.


But given the persistent weather pattern, the dominance of easterly winds thanks to the positive SAM and then weather systems being stuck, this has lead to acute areas of below average rainfall in pockets through the nation.


So we need to see rainfall come back for these areas, especially the Capricornia and parts of Central Inland QLD, before the dry season kicks in.


So will we see that or the Autumn Break for areas that have not seen rainfall of any great substance for the east and southern areas? Will we see an Autumn break in terms of temperatures dropping away for areas that have baked through Summer?


And will the tropics continue on into April, will we see more widespread rainfall coming back to the forecast packages? Will that influence rainfall chances across the nation and bring down those elevated temperatures in the west.


Lets take a look

FOREACST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the next 6 weeks

The rainfall looks to be reflecting a seasonal shift towards Autumn as this outlook moves from now into late April, so the good news is, there is a reduction of that rainfall over the east coast of QLD and NSW and now starting to see the spread increase over southern areas of WA, SA and through the southeast. This idea has been growing in the past 14 days and I will keep watching. So do expect to see some more frontal weather appearing in the charts from late this month but I suspect into April, helping to drag down the last of the tropical moisture impacting northern Australia through late March into early April, setting the stage for cloud bands to emerge. The east coast will still see showery onshore winds and there is a risk of troughs forming within the easterly winds to enhance rainfall (these products don't do specifics) also increasing the risk of ECLs, so we are not out of the woods in terms of flooding potential. But it would be very unlikely that there is a larger peak in rainfall bias for the east of the nation. The wet season is building down through this time and the wet season will start to build for the SWLD of WA and through southern parts of the nation. The climate hustler, the SAM being neutral and negative will support the wet season developing for the west coast of WA. Once we see the frontal weather return, then we will know that we are moving away from the dominance of easterly winds and adopting a traditional Autumn pattern with regular rainfall for the southern states, then broken up with mild to warm and settled periods of weather with cooler nights. The weather over northern Australia is looking interesting over the coming 2-3 weeks with the MJO moving through, that could spawn some late season cyclone activity into early April which is not uncommon in a waning La Nina. But the tropics this Summer have been very quiet for cyclone activity again!

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the next 6 weeks

With the return of more traditional Autumnal weather across the nation and a reduction of rainfall signals for many parts (from the record highs) we could see some areas sitting in periods of dry weather for long periods, leading to above average temperatures. The higher risk zones of this will be interior WA, through Ag SA and into western and central VIC and NSW, much of inland QLD and the southern NT. Above average temperatures over the tropics are in line with the late wet season weather and higher humidity values. The east coast generally seasonal, with the cooler bias also moderating in recent weeks suggesting that the wettest weather for the year may be behind us.

Key Points

Refer to video for more details relating to the outlooks.

These are the other areas I am looking at as well in the background and think it is important to think about these things if you are relying on the weather patterns for decision making.

I will have more on this product coming up on Tuesday - but certainly some interesting signals around the Autumn Break and potential for further ECL low activity and an active burst of monsoonal weather floating around northern Australia. Just when I thought we were trending quiet.....more dynamic weather to come.