Certainly looking at the Autumn break being complete with the temperatures set to reflect the mood of the month, May is a time where we see temperatures come down and this week we see that occurring.

But the question remains, does that continue through the coming 6 weeks or is this a blip on the radar so to speak, and humid and unsettled weather set to return for large parts of the country again?

The lingering La Nina, the warmer than normal SSTs around the nation and the potential for the warmer SSTs to linger around the nation during this time likely means that the weather indeed will be more humid and when it rains, likely to be more productive. So that guidance is largely unchanged.

There will be some pockets that see relatively seasonal weather in terms of rainfall and many areas could see below average day time temperatures but above average night time temperatures. The weather all over the shop, dynamic and the potential for severe weather remains elevated under the current guidance.

Lets take a look


%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

The rainfall signals continue to run very much above average for large parts of the nation, especially as we move into QLD and NSW where the bias is connected to the waning La Nina and the chance of a significant rainfall event in the short term and again towards the end of the run with a positive SAM phase. As we look along southern Australia, the rainfall odds are leaning towards a wetter bias with the frontal weather sweeping through. The west and southwest of WA could see above average rainfall but I think this will come in fits and bursts rather than long drawn out rainfall with frontal passages persisting through the region. For the northern tropics, there will be late season tropical waves still impacting the NT and QLD which may bring up the chance of above average rainfall, despite the drier shift this week, humidity is forecast to return. That may influence rainfall for the remainder of QLD and NSW as well, leading to the above average rainfall signals that are currently present. Most Ag areas should see crops watered in but for some it could be a case of too much!

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks

Not much change from the signals on Friday with the cooler bias continuing out west and the warmer bias continuing over the north and near seasonal most elsewhere. However, with the persistent rainfall signals over the northeast and east of the country, I may increase the chance of below average temperatures for eastern QLD and into northern NSW. The overnights in the case would be above average for large parts of the country with higher humidity values, cloudy skies and higher rainfall chances. This would be the case for WA and SA even though you sit under a lot of blue, your overnights may be above normal if we see rainfall rates remaining very high. Even though we have frost potential in the southeast this week with a cold outbreak, the next event similar to the one coming through this week is more likely into June. The tropics will see fluctuation between the dry season and the build down continuing right through to mid June.

Key Points

Refer to video for more information

Additional Key Points

Things to consider as we move forward through the coming weeks.

I will have the Spring 2022 Outlook coming up tomorrow which will shed some light on the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole! Time to pay attention to these forecasts if you are expected to harvest.

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