CLIMATE WA - RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK NEXT 6 WEEKS

The latest update on the weather expected for the next 6 weeks - as we move through the transitional period of September and October. More details on the nation wrap can be found here.


Rainfall outlook - Next 6 weeks

% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the period September 10-October 24th 2021.

Rainfall remains above average for parts of the SWLD, but near normal rainfall values elsewhere. This is thanks to moisture laden in the westerly winds with cold fronts rolling through the region in the coming weeks. The moisture content over the north is expected to sweep south and southwest through the state, being lifted by inland heat troughs, that will see showers and thunderstorms break out across the inland from October onwards, leading to a chance of rainfall returning to these remote areas. Northern areas a good chance of seeing above average rainfall through this period with showers increasing, from as early as this week.

Northern and Central WA.

Temperature outlook - Next 6 weeks

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the period September 10-October 24th 2021.

Above average temperatures over northern and central parts of the state expected to continue for the coming 6 weeks. That heat remaining relatively dry for the coming 3-4 weeks before more humidity gets involved in that. As we track into the back half of this period, there could be some moderation in heat values over the state IF the IOD phase does verify and we see more cloud over the continent. The SWLD should see near seasonal values, but a couple more weeks of below average temperatures are possible with the SAM remaining neutral for the most part. If the SAM turns positive then the warmer air will drift southwards and above average temperatures may persist.


Northern and Central WA.

Climate forecasting is never perfect and it should be consumed as a guide based upon climate drivers at the time. Weather is constantly evolving and changing and so keep watch in my 2-3 time a week updates. It is important to also understand the limitations and inaccuracy the further you go out in the land of weather forecasting. So this should always be treated as a guide.


I will have state based forecast coming up later today and a look into the medium term as well.


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