A state based look at the rainfall and temperature outlook for the next 6 weeks - as we edge into harvest 2021 for many people. There is a degree of caution as always, that should be applied to these longer term outlooks as the further you go out, the guidance is somewhat poorer.

But here is the latest guide - and here is the wrap from Friday for the broader nation and the underpinning data sets.

Rainfall - An increased chance of above average rainfall through the northeast of the state, though the risk diminishes a little the further west you are. Still a good chance of seeing average rainfall for the entire state during this period. There may be some flood issues over the northeast where dams are near capacity and a lot of snow melt is expected to sweep down the mountains and onto the plains through this period. The more active storm events are expected to remain in NSW and QLD..

Northeast and Eastern VIC - this area carries a moderate to high flood risk this season.

Northwest Victoria.

Southwest Victoria

Temperatures - Seasonal temperatures are anticipated for the state through the coming 6 weeks, but there will be periods of above average temperatures contrasted with below average spells of weather. Typical spring weather, which is important in producing that volatile weather, especially as we get warmer into October.

Remember that climate outlooks are never perfect, but they should be used as a guide, and people interpreting the data, including professionals such as me, should advise people consuming this data as not 100% correct - that is not how it works, and there is always variation in rainfall and temperature outcomes. But this is a guide based upon the latest data sets available.

More weather coming up this afternoon on your state based outlook for the week coming, and more on that developing rainfall event later this week.

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