The weather is settling in the short term which is normal after a 2 week barrage of severe weather, so make the most of it, because this last event is not the last this Summer and even as we enter Autumn.

The beginnings of Autumn can be very much like Summer, with high humidity and rainfall heavy at times, like we saw last year, leading to more flooding issues across the nation. This risk may be focussed more heavily over the east coast of NSW and QLD as the wet season kicks into gear.

For the remainder of the nation, must watch the tropical north which is the engine room for rainfall at this time of year. Moisture has engulfed the nation in recent times and you have seen the result across vast areas of the nation. Is that set to continue and spread to areas that have been spared thus far?

Lets find out more details


% chance of exceeding the median rainfall from February 1st-March...

Rainfall very much likely to remain above average over large parts of the nation through the coming 6 weeks, that in part to what is happening right now, but the ability for the monsoon to provide a repeat event throughout the nation. It is a timely reminder about the lead in time that these forecasts provide you as subscribers and I cannot be more passionate about ensuring you have the updated information as often as possible for this very reason. So once again, we may have a quieter week coming up but I fully expect above average rainfall emerging through northern Australia with the MJO returning, the east coast with the persistent SAM phase which will feed east coast troughs and inland troughs producing more humidity and thundery weather. The cyclone season yet to peak will also come into play for the tropics but also spread down through the northwest to southeast of the nation with heavy rainfall bands possibly developing throughout the remainder of Summer and kicking off Northwest Cloud Band Season earlier in March. Not that many people need an Autumn break in terms of rainfall, the weather is expected to provide more wet weather for the foreseeable future.

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures from February 1st-March...

The below average run of temperatures experienced during the past week over the northwest has been at nearly record levels. The cooler weather persists for another few days before it eases back to seasonal values in the medium term, but the repeated nature of the deep monsoonal moisture spreading throughout the nation in combination with the persistent SAM phase may support the development of more cloud and this suppressing searing hot baking weather for northern, central and eastern Australia. This may be supported with the waning La Nina as well. So while we are seeing quieter weather at the moment in the next week, the weather is set to turn back to wet, humid and unsettled values leading to cooler than average weather for many regions.

Key Note from this Update

For your review.

More on this coming up on Friday morning. Keep an eye on those tropical areas, I think we may see more influence from that region across the nation.

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