CLIMATE UPDATE - NEXT 2 WEEKS

Valid Tuesday 4th of May 2021.

Next Update on this forecast Tuesday 11th May 2021.


Rainfall for the next 2 weeks.

Headlines


A wet phase continues for the west of the nation with a deep low pressure trough lifting large amounts of tropical moisture leading to widespread areas of rainfall and thunderstorms.


An upper low in the east, triggering widespread showers and thunderstorms, with heavy falls possible about the southeast of NSW and eastern Gippsland over the coming days.

Ridging over SA and the NT, keeping the central areas mostly dry and stable.


The northern tropics have dried out.


Analysis


For WA, the wet signal continues over the coming fortnight with multiple frontal passages through the region. The heaviest rainfall is likely in the coming 2 days, with more modest and average weather expected for the remainder of the period.


Rainfall anomalies - GFS next 5 days

Precipitable Water Values - GFS next two weeks shows a reduction in the amount of tropical moisture being drawn into the jetstream , thus seeing less rainfall for inland areas into mid month. Coastal areas will see more rainfall opportunities.

Wettest part of the country over the coming 2 weeks will be the SW of WA due to this rainfall event. Conditions ease from later this week.


Euro Rainfall accumulation for the next 4 days



For SA, relatively dry away from the coast, though a few fronts over the period will bring patchy falls through the western inland and over the southern coastline, with higher falls about the far southeast coastal areas.


Dry air firmly entrenched over SA through most of the coming 2 weeks with high pressure persisting over the Great Australian Bight, punching frontal weather off to the southwest of the state and troughing in the east allowing rainfall to stay on the east coast. GFS 18z valid 04th May 2021.

Surface pattern from GFS showing the frontal weather only impacting coastal areas for the coming fortnight, with maybe 10-20mm for coastal areas of SA over the next 14 days.


For VIC, the wettest weather of the period is connected to the upper low today, where some areas received 100mm overnight. Frontal weather moving through with limited moisture, will see rainfall remain fairly coastal beyond the next 2 days.


Sea surface temperatures off Victoria are relatively neutral with the better values are sitting off the east coast, so we need more moisture to drift in from the northwest and be injected into the westerly air stream for better rainfall opportunities moving into winter.


Although parts of West Gippsland and Alpine areas could see OK rainfall over the next two weeks - these areas more exposed to early season westerly winds and showers.


SSTS as of May 2nd 2021.



For TAS, showers will increase over the north and east in the coming days before the showers contract back to the west of the state and stay there for the majority of the 2 week period, with multiple fronts bringing heavy falls at times in westerly winds.


The SAM is also remaining neutral so rainfall totals, although quite handsome for western Tasmania, still running around average if not below average for much of the state over the coming 2 weeks.


Southern Annular Mode forecast for the next 2 weeks ending May 25th 2021


For NSW, heavy rainfall along parts of the coast, especially in the SE of the state, will be the wettest period over the coming 2 weeks. Frontal weather returning and westerly winds will see a drier trend for inland areas until the end of this period when moisture is likely to return with rainfall chances lifting .


For QLD, rainfall remains coastal for the period with onshore easterly winds developing over the tropical north coast later this week and into next week. The upper low responsible for the wet weather in the southeast of the nation will be the main rainfall event for areas west of the divide in the SE through this period. Rainfall may return to inland areas mid month onwards, just outside of this period.


For NT, dry conditions throughout away from the northeast coast with onshore winds bringing a few showers from later this week.



Weather Matters Temperature Forecast - % chance of exceeding the median temperature over the coming 2 weeks.

Temperatures


Well above average temperatures continue over northern Australia as the dry season slowly kicks in.


Cooler than normal weather persisting over southeast Australia under an upper low for the coming 48hrs.


Cooler than normal weather persisting over southwest and central WA with widespread cloud and rainfall.


Analysis


The trend for a cooler and wetter than normal May is kicking off in that direction for southwest and central WA with widespread cloud and rain with a slow moving trough in place. Temperatures are expected to remain average to below average for the coming week with further frontal weather about.


Hot weather persisting over the northern parts of WA, NT and QLD with the wet season ending and the dry season slowly flushing out the humid low levels. Temperatures should begin to fall away over the coming week and not really return to normal until mid month. Night time temperatures will drop nicely over the coming week with a dry southeasterly flow moving in.


Euro Precipitable Water forecast for the next 10 days showing that drier air moving north - valid May 4th 2021.


Over the south and east, near normal conditions are expected, despite the cold rainy weather today.


Temperatures should rebound to normal tomorrow and above average temperatures for the remainder of this week. There could be some cloudy skies through the weekend which could lead to a cooler few days over inland NSW and QLD with little rainfall expected.

Like what you see? Want more information for your location? email me at karllijnders@weathermatters.org for how I can assist you.

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