I am going to hold off on the September Update and wait for the next lot of data to come through to verify the rapid shift in modelling to the warmer and wetter signal coming up through the next 4 weeks.

I am not satisfied based upon current observations that the rainfall and temperature data you see below are going to verify. So I will hold off until the next lot comes in during Monday afternoon and I can go through it before giving you what you need to know Tuesday.

My September Outlook Rainfall and Temperature - Issued last week.


Rainfall Anomalies September and the first half of October 2021

You can clearly see the IOD is alive and kicking through September and into October, noting the rainfall anomalies are off the charts over Indonesia, where that moisture then spreads through the IOD zone and into northern and eastern Australia. The west near normal. Classic IOD influence. The tap may turned from a trickle to full blast and this is something to watch during the coming week of data.

Rainfall Accumulation September and the first half of October 2021

Extensive rainfall coverage through the coming 4-6 weeks courtesy of those temperatures warming (remember the rule - the warmer the temperatures the more moisture the air can hold = more productive rainfall events). We are seeing the temperatures warm so this scenario is not impossible but it is something to consider. The weather likely to get wetter as we go through the coming 4-6 weeks. But once again, lets review this in the next update on Tuesday when I bring you the September forecast.

Temperature Anomalies September and the first half of October 2021

No real change here in the guidance, warmer over the north and cooler or near seasonal weather over the south, that will be conditional and related to how much rainfall develops over inland areas of the south and central parts of the nation. Doesn't mean cold the whole time, just below average with rainfall about, though as you will experience next week, spikes in temperature too. Strap yourself in for the spring roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures. If you are living out over the southeast you will see this the most. The west experiencing more benign temperature fluctuations.

Summer 2021/22 update due out within the next hour.

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