CLIMATE - THE WILD WEATHER TO END MAY KICKS ON INTO JUNE IT APPEARS.

The wild weather that has been plaguing the east all Autumn with really nasty bouts of rainfall and flooding is expected to return for June for QLD and NSW it appears on some of the latest data coming through. The rainfall continues a run of unprecedented above average rainfall for many locations over the course of the past 2 years and is setting up a wet Winter.


This all ahead of the Indian Ocean Dipole turning sharply negative, that is yet to play out and have major impacts on the rainfall spread across the nation.


For now, we are seeing less severe weather activity for the southeast inland and through SA and the NT where high pressure looks to be anchored for a good portion of time.


Out west, the rainfall is starting to become more frequent as we go through this period and the humidity values over the north of the tropical regions is forecast to remain above normal, keeping the rainfall chances at above average levels.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks taking us through to the 24th of June.

The very wet signal is forecast to continue over the northeast and east of the country which is playing out this week. Certainly, the volumes of rainfall will lead to the period being above average in terms of rainfall. There is additional rainfall potential to sit above the average in addition to this event so a very wet spell to continue. The wet bias extends over much of NSW, so the food bowl can expect quite a wet spell as the planting continues. The tropics, leaning more humid with dry season rainfall continuing to feature. The Indian Ocean waking up over the coming weeks propelling some moisture through the jet stream and bringing up the chance of inland rainfall being above normal over southwest and western interior WA. The nation as a whole looking wetter than normal but the areas that will see the lower chances of above average rainfall will be southern NT into much of SA, but even here, a 60-70% chance of seeing above average rainfall is robust and likely linked to the remains of large-scale rainfall events washing over the region, rather than rainfall coming all at once like the northeast and east of the country.

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for the coming 6 weeks taking us through to the 24th of June.

Temperatures are forecast to remain well above average in line with high levels of humidity over northern parts of the nation. This will spread south and southeast through the nation, overriding the dry and colder westerly influence for a fair chunk of this period. So, all of a sudden seeing a slightly warmer bias now presented on the charts for the eastern parts of NSW, but most areas should come in at seasonal as whole. Does it mean we see brutally cold weather developing? It is possible, but more likely to lean wetter and more humid with cloudy skies, leading to warmer nights and seasonal days in the east. But out west, where the frontal weather is likely to feature more prominently and a colder southwesterly flow can become established, a cooler signal exists here. Some chance of very much below average temperatures coupled with higher rainfall chances will lead to a soggy cold start to Winter for Ag areas in WA.

Key Points

Refer to video for further details on these points.

Additional Key Points

Further points to consider as you get on with your working week, these will be discussed in the days and weeks ahead so stay tuned.

This forecast will be updated again on Friday with fresh rainfall charts and another video if required but at this time the guidance has been very consistent on the climate drivers through to rainfall distribution and temperature distribution.

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