CLIMATE - THE WET SIGNAL RETURNS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS PERIOD.

I have already updated the Outlook for March for those wanting specific monthly outlooks, but the weather is not an entity that fits within human constraints and borders. I do not forecast like that, as the data changes, that means your forecast has to adjust. It is like telling a story that never ends and the ending constantly changes....


A good forecaster operates off that parameter and I hope you are getting that level of detail from these updates 2-3 times a week.


This latest update is looking at the period from now through to early April so it covers the wet phase coming up over the next 2-3 weeks, the settled period in Mid March as things recalibrate (that could change further) and then the first attempt of cold fronts bringing a colder shift into the south of the nation in late March or early April. Some hints that could be on the cards as well.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

There has been an adjustment in the guidance surrounding the rainfall and it is heavily connected to the evolution of the MJO and the SAM phases (refer to short and medium term forecasts to supplement this guidance daily). The shift in the pace of the MJO moving through the Australian region has seen rainfall chances comes down for parts of northwest WA through the interior of the NT with the majority of climate models suggesting heavier rainfall for the Top End over the Gulf Country of QLD and through to Cape York. There is evidence of tropical lows developing in the monsoon trough at the end of the month and to kick off March which would enhance rainfall for the first week of March. The MJO is slated to be in the Western Pacific by the end of the first week of March and then translate east. The east coast will be wetter than normal under a significant period of positive SAM. The easterly winds as a result pumping moisture through eastern and central Australia lifting rainfall. Under the persistent easterly flow, the southern coastal areas can expect seasonal rainfall odds with the Mediterranean Summer that the west is famous for remaining in place.

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for the coming 6 weeks

With the shift of the MJO through Australia at a steady pace, this will see interior temperatures move above average, the volatility reflecting that the guidance has shifted from about a week ago. The guidance for the east is unchanged with the onshore flow producing more cloud and rainfall chances (as seen in recent days) with the SAM remaining positive for a good chunk of this period. With monsoonal conditions up north, the temperatures may start out below average but they will shift back to above average through the back half of this outlook, supporting more above average temperatures across the nation as we move through March. Possibly seeing some frontal weather at the end of March into early April which could lop a few degrees off the average for the month across Southern Australia.

Key Points

For those who want to refresh themselves of the main issues raised in the video, more details can be found in the video so refer to that for more analysis.

A more extensive update expected on Friday. I am looking at the fresh data sets coming through and will report back on that later this week so make sure you log back in for that. Also, it is imperative to cross check the daily short and medium term guidance in the morning and evening. I am posting throughout the day so it is good to review daily, as the information will continue to change with the climate drivers starting to increase the magnitude and amplitude of weather over Australia in the coming weeks.


Severe weather risks are increasing as are the inland and coastal flood risks.

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