CLIMATE - THE WET SIGNAL COMES AND GOES THROUGH THE NEXT 6 WEEKS.

The intense wet signal that was building through early February for the end of the month has now verified and we can see more opportunity for further above average rainfall and severe weather potential on the charts in the medium and long term for the region. This as the QLD and NSW coasts head into their wet season and what a way to start with record flooding observed in many areas.


The wet signal also spills over the divide into the eastern inland. The lingering La Nina, keeping those sea surface temperatures warmer than normal over northern and eastern Australia leading to more moisture to work with, that equals more rainfall. We have seen that play out numerous times in the past 3-6 months.


That La Nina influence should begin to wane over the coming period.


Over in the west, hard to find a drop in SWLD of WA but the shift in the patterns over the coming weeks will see the Mediterranean Summer come to an end with rainfall returning as well.


The tropics also remaining active in the short term, but there may be one more burst of monsoonal weather in the season left as the MJO begins to reorganise.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall expectations for the coming 6 weeks

The significant rainfall potential continues for the east of the nation with a very persistent onshore flow expected for the next 4 weeks for QLD and NSW, this feeding troughs and upper level systems moving out of the west and deepening over the interior parts of the east, leading to above average rainfall chances for parts of inland VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD. The rainfall rates could be intense and excessive at times leading to further flooding developing. We are seeing that in the short term. Over the north, the slow build down should commence through the coming period, we are seeing a reduction in rainfall over northern Australia over the next 2 weeks but we may see another burst of monsoonal weather later this month into April which may enhance rainfall chances for northern areas and being sent southwards into the interior. If we see more weather over the Indian Ocean (please pay attention to TC Anika this week to watch this unfold) northwest cloud bands will likely develop spreading rainfall through interior parts of WA and SA. This moisture may also stream across the nation into the eastern inland and depending on the synoptic scale, could enhance rainfall once again for the eastern inland. We will also see a northward progression of the westerly wind belt, regardless of the positive SAM phase and these may increase the rainfall for southern coastal areas into mid April (more on April tomorrow).

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures expectations for the coming 6 weeks

Temperatures are forecast to remain near seasonal for most areas, with a warmer bias for northern and western Australia and a cooler bias for the eastern areas. This has been the theme for this La Nina and is likely to continue. The persistence of easterly winds will lead to cloudy weather for the east so the days may be cooler but nights warmer than normal. Over interior parts and through SA, looking mostly seasonal for now. So not much movement from the past few updates.

Key Points

I have more details in the video so make sure you cross check with those details and not just read and look at the pretty pictures to gain context to the outlooks!

More coming up on this product on Friday, in the meantime, make sure you refer back to the short and medium term weather analysis daily for verification of this information, as the weather can change, as we have seen in the past week with the upper low in the east.




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